Key Takeaways
- Palantir fell 6.3% Friday and 7.4% for the week ahead of its November 2 report, closing at $184.
- Consensus expects $2.18 billion of third-quarter revenue, above Palantir’s own $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion guidance.
- Hitting full-year U.S. commercial guidance requires roughly $2.07 billion in the second half, about 22% sequential growth in each quarter.
- At 96.8x forward earnings, Monday’s report needs a beat and a raise, and U.S. commercial revenue is the number to watch.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) heads into earnings with the toughest setup in software: a premium multiple and a consensus that already sits above its own guidance.
The stock fell 6.3% on Friday to $184 and lost 7.4% for the week as AI spending fears hit tech. It now trades 14% below its 52-week high of $213.
JPMorgan joined the bull camp on Thursday, citing the AI opportunity. Michael Burry is still betting against the stock. Monday’s report, due after the close, will test both views.
For a sense of the premium, look at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which reports a day later. Analysts expect AMD’s revenue to compound 60.6% a year over the next two years at 45.1x forward earnings, while Palantir’s 66.4% comes at 96.8x.
What Monday has to clear
Palantir guided third-quarter revenue to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, or 83% growth. Consensus sits higher, at $2.18 billion of revenue and $0.41 of EPS.
That gap is normal here, because Palantir tends to beat its own range. In the second quarter:
- Revenue rose 93% to $1.94 billion against a $1.80 billion estimate.
- U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764 million.
- Adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.35 consensus.
Palantir called that quarter “otherworldly” in its release, and it was hard to argue. A similar 7% beat this time would push revenue toward $2.3 billion.
Where has all that left the stock?
Shares are up 74% from the 52-week low of $106, so expectations have climbed with them.
U.S. commercial carries the guide
Palantir raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion, implying 82% growth. It also guided U.S. commercial revenue above $3.424 billion, at least 134% growth.
By my math, that requires roughly $2.07 billion of U.S. commercial revenue in the second half, or about 22% sequential growth in each of the last two quarters. Second-quarter sequential growth was 28%, so the target looks reachable. That makes the third-quarter U.S. commercial figure more important than the headline.
Bookings support it. Palantir closed a record $2.132 billion of U.S. commercial TCV in the second quarter, up 153%, and U.S. commercial remaining deal value hit $6.24 billion, up 124%.
Here’s the split between its two businesses.
Commercial now nearly matches government revenue, and it is growing faster.
TIKR tracks 32 analysts on Palantir. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Palantir, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Palantir’s Analyst Ratings
Paying 96.8x for the next beat
Palantir trades at 96.8x forward earnings, 157x trailing earnings and 42.6x forward EV to revenue. The Street’s $213 average target implies just 15% upside, even after the latest bull calls.
That premium holds only if growth stays near current rates. Guidance already implies growth slowing from 93% in the second quarter to 83% in the third, so any hint of a steeper slowdown would hit the multiple first.
Europe adds a wrinkle. Palantir recently said it cannot shut off NATO’s AI system, an effort to calm European worries about depending on U.S. tech.
Put the two multiples next to each other…
Right now, Palantir costs more than twice AMD’s multiple for only slightly faster expected growth.
My take: Palantir is executing as well as any software company I follow, and the U.S. commercial bookings make the full-year guide look achievable. But at 96.8x forward earnings, the stock already prices in a beat and raise. I’d wait for a better entry rather than buy ahead of Monday.
The next checkpoint is Monday’s report. Watch U.S. commercial revenue against the roughly $930 million it needs to stay on the full-year path, and whether full-year guidance moves above $8.158 billion.
So what is Palantir stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
