PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) has climbed back to about $105/share after a choppy year marked by softer forward revenue trends and a reset in expectations. The company remains a high quality manufacturer with strong margins, a resilient parts business and a healthy balance sheet, but analysts are modeling a more moderate setup going forward.
Recently, PACCAR reported results that came in ahead of expectations, supported by steady strength in its aftermarket parts business and solid truck deliveries in North America. The company also highlighted continued development in its electric and autonomous vehicle programs, which could support long term growth as fleet modernization accelerates. These updates show PACCAR is still investing for the future even as near term demand cools.
This article outlines where Wall Street analysts believe PACCAR could trade by 2027. It combines consensus price targets with TIKR’s valuation model. These figures reflect analyst expectations and do not represent TIKR’s own forecasts.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest the Stock Is Mostly Priced In
PACCAR trades near $105/share today. The average analyst price target is $107/share, which points to about 2% upside. With such a small gap, analysts appear to believe most near term expectations are already reflected in the stock.
- High estimate: $126/share
- Low estimate: $90/share
- Median target: $108/share
- Ratings: 7 Buys, 1 Outperform, 14 Holds, 1 Sell
The tight range of forecasts suggests analysts expect stability rather than meaningful upside. For investors, this usually means the stock is likely to follow earnings results closely instead of moving on sentiment or momentum.
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PACCAR: Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s fundamentals appear steady, but expectations have cooled based on the valuation inputs shown in the model:
- Revenue growth forecast: (1%)
- Operating margin forecast: 11%
- Forward P E used: 14x
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 14x forward P E suggests PACCAR could trade near $89/share by 2027
- That implies about a 15% decline, or roughly 8% annualized downside
These numbers reflect earnings normalizing after several strong years for the industry. Slower expected revenue and EPS make the stock more dependent on stable margins and mid cycle performance. For investors, PACCAR looks more like a dependable operator than a near term growth story, with returns likely constrained unless industry demand strengthens sooner than expected.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
PACCAR continues to benefit from its strong parts business, which provides consistent profitability even when new truck demand softens. This segment helps stabilize results during weaker economic periods and supports cash flow. The company is also advancing its electric and autonomous truck initiatives, positioning itself to remain competitive as the industry transitions toward next generation platforms.
Management has maintained strong operational discipline, preserving margins and keeping the balance sheet healthy despite cooling demand. For investors, these strengths suggest PACCAR can navigate the current environment with resilience while continuing to invest in technology and product development that will shape its long term strategy.
Bear Case: Cyclicality and Slowing Demand
Even with PACCAR’s strengths, analysts expect softer demand, lower production levels and reduced pricing power in the near term. Freight markets have slowed across key regions, and fleets are pacing their replacement cycles more cautiously. This naturally pressures revenue and earnings.
PACCAR also operates in a highly cyclical industry. If freight markets weaken further or if demand in North America and Europe softens more than expected, analyst estimates may be revised lower. For investors, this presents the risk of additional downside if the broader cycle deteriorates.
Outlook for 2027: What Could PACCAR Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model using a 14x forward P E suggests PACCAR could trade near $89/share by 2027. Compared to today’s price of about $105/share, this reflects a potential decline of roughly 15%.
This scenario does not point to structural problems within PACCAR. Instead, it reflects analysts expecting lower production volumes, softer pricing and more conservative margins as the industry resets from recent peak conditions. For the stock to deliver stronger returns, the cycle would need to improve earlier than expected or PACCAR would need to outperform in areas such as order activity or parts growth.
For investors, PACCAR remains a high quality industrial company, but the near term return profile appears limited. Upside from here will likely depend on a recovery in freight markets or stronger than expected execution through the cycle.
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