Key Takeaways
- Oracle stock fell 14% in a week on a $20 billion stock and bond sale and an AI selloff that also hit CoreWeave after Amazon’s results.
- The sale was the one Oracle promised, covering its new funding through fiscal 2030.
- Oracle targets over $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029, more than twice what analysts expect.
- At a multiple far below its five-year average, the stock looks like a buy.
Oracle (ORCL) stock is down 14% in the past week. It sold the $20 billion of stock and bonds it had promised, and AI stocks sank after Amazon (AMZN) reported.
CoreWeave (CRWV), with the same AI exposure and costlier debt, fell harder: down 24%.
It sold exactly what it promised
On Oct. 28, Oracle capped new raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion.
Before Monday’s open, it filed to sell all of it, and priced the deal that night: 86.2 million shares at $116 and $10 billion of notes at 7% to 8.65%. The stock fell 9% that day anyway.
The bill is manageable: about 3% more shares and about $780 million a year of interest. Analysts see earnings growing fast enough to cover both:
The raise costs about 55 cents a share at most against fiscal 2028’s $11.08.
Big Tech’s results hit the whole group
The rest came with the AI trade. Amazon’s trailing free cash flow turned to a $42.4 billion outflow on AI spending, and the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 3% on Oct. 30, a day with no Oracle news.
CoreWeave sold its last two unsecured bonds at 9.75% and 9.625%, against Oracle’s new 7% to 8.65%. Its Nov. 10 report is the next read on its funding.
TIKR tracks 41 analysts on Oracle. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oracle, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oracle’s Analyst Ratings
At 14x, the bar is low
Oracle closed Monday at 14x forward earnings, far under its 21x five-year average, and sits only a bit higher now:
Load up, but watch the cash
With the cap used up, the rest has to come from Oracle’s own cash. It targets over $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029, more than twice the consensus:
Still, at 14x, investors are paying as if the buildout won’t pay off. With funding settled through fiscal 2030 and earnings estimates climbing, I’d load up rather than sell. The 41 analysts covering Oracle see $235 on average.
Of course, December’s second-quarter report is the first real check on that cash plan.
So what is Oracle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
