Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power fell 26% in a week to a new 52-week low as power and nuclear stocks, Oklo and Vistra among them, sold off around the election.
- NuScale had no bad news of its own, though Wedbush initiated coverage at Underperform.
- Third-quarter liquidity held at $1.9 billion against $281,000 of revenue.
- The selling looks overdone, but the stock still needs the Tennessee Valley Authority to sign a binding deal.
NuScale Power (SMR) lost 26% in the week to Thursday, Nov. 5, closing at a new 52-week low of $4.37. Very little of the drop came from its own business.
Oklo (OKLO) fell 28% over the same week, and Vistra (VST) fell 20%, as power and nuclear stocks sold off around Tuesday’s election.
Blame the election, and the market
Vistra’s worst day was Wednesday, after Texas elected Democrat Gina Hinojosa governor on a promise to halt new data centers. KeyBanc downgraded Vistra to Sector Weight that day, citing projected Democratic control of Congress, and the stock fell 14%.
On Thursday, NuScale fell 15% and Oklo 12%. Friday brought a bounce: NuScale rose 16% to $5.08 after a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss, while Oklo gained 23% and Vistra 11% after their own reports.
Wedbush would rather own Oklo
NuScale’s one piece of bad news came after Monday’s close. Wedbush initiated coverage at Underperform with a $5 target, noting that NuScale holds the only NRC-approved small modular reactor design but has never signed a binding, financed module order. Wedbush backed Oklo instead.
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Still no buyer
On Oct. 29, NuScale signed a contract with Doosan Enerbility to make the upper reactor coolant system for its first power module. Neither company named a customer, and the stock gave back that gain the next day.
The order that matters is a binding power purchase agreement between ENTRA1, NuScale’s exclusive sales partner, and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Their September 2025 deal for up to 6 gigawatts is still non-binding, and consensus revenue doesn’t top $100 million until 2027:
Third-quarter revenue of $281,000 left NuScale at $921,000 for nine months. Hitting 2026’s $20.4 million estimate would take about $19.5 million in the fourth quarter alone.
Paying for the cash, getting the design free
NuScale’s liquidity held at $1.9 billion on Sept. 30. That was about its market value at Thursday’s close, so the market was giving its NRC-approved design almost no value. Even after Friday’s bounce, it’s worth about $2.1 billion.
Wall Street’s average target fell from $41 to $11 in the year to Oct. 28. Wedbush’s $5 target sat above Thursday’s close, and Friday’s rally only just cleared it.
But NuScale paid for that cushion in stock. Its combined share count rose 86% from the end of 2023 to June 30, and it filed a new $750 million at-the-market program in August.
The selling looks overdone. Priced near its cash, NuScale trades like a cheap option on a TVA signing, and options can still expire worthless.
Barclays expects ENTRA1 and TVA to keep negotiating until at least early 2027, and every quarter of waiting could mean more stock sold at lower prices.
So what is NuScale stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
