Key Takeaways
- NIO delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, down 15.2% from a year earlier, while XPeng set a monthly record and Li Auto also slipped.
- Second-quarter gross margin jumped to 18.4% from 10.0%, and NIO posted an adjusted operating profit of RMB206.9 million.
- To average 40,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, NIO now needs about 42,900 in each of November and December.
- Third-quarter results are expected in late November, and fourth-quarter guidance will show whether the 40,000 target survives.
NIO (NIO) spent much of 2026 fixing its profit problem. Now it has a volume problem.
The company delivered 34,246 vehicles in October, down 15.2% from a year earlier and 8.5% below September. Meanwhile, XPeng (XPEV) delivered a record 50,237 cars, up 20%, and Li Auto (LI) slipped 8.6% to 29,025.
So NIO isn’t alone in the slowdown. Still, it set a high bar for itself, and October missed it by a wide margin.
That matters because the margin story investors finally got this year depends on scale.
October broke the run rate
On the second-quarter call, management set a goal of more than 40,000 deliveries a month on average in the fourth quarter. October came in about 5,750 short.
Here’s how the month split by brand:
- NIO brand: 18,125 vehicles
- ONVO: 8,383 vehicles
- FIREFLY: 7,738 vehicles
To hit the goal, NIO now needs roughly 85,750 deliveries across November and December, or about 42,900 a month. It managed 48,135 in December 2025, so a strong finish is possible. However, ONVO remains the soft spot, and one month rarely flips that.
So how has NIO’s growth compared with its two closest rivals?
NIO’s 69.1% revenue jump in the second quarter came almost entirely from volume. October is the first real sign that engine is cooling.
Premium mix fixed the margins
The second quarter showed what the turnaround looks like when volume cooperates.
Revenue rose 69.1% to RMB32.14 billion, and vehicle sales grew 80.1% to RMB29.06 billion. The net loss shrank to RMB528.0 million from RMB4.99 billion a year earlier. Excluding share-based compensation, NIO posted an operating profit of RMB206.9 million.
Chief executive William Li pointed to the top of the market. In the results release, he said the NIO brand “ranked first in China’s passenger vehicle market priced above RMB 350,000.”
Pricier SUVs like the ES8 lifted average selling prices, and that showed up quickly in profitability…
Gross margin reached 18.4%, up from 10.0% a year earlier. Vehicle margin held at 18.5%, barely below the first quarter’s 18.8%.
That’s a very different company from the one that lost nearly RMB5 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
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Scale has to come back
Third-quarter results should look fine on volume. NIO delivered 109,178 vehicles, up 25.4% and inside its guided range of 108,000 to 111,000.
That points to revenue near its guidance of RMB33.29 billion to RMB34.05 billion, which works out to growth of 52.7% to 56.2%.
The fourth quarter is the harder question. NIO’s margin gains came with rising volume, and fixed costs spread across fewer cars would eat into them quickly. Meanwhile, XPeng is pushing past 50,000 a month, which keeps pricing pressure on everyone in the segment.
Despite that margin turn, the market has given NIO almost no credit for it.
NIO’s EV/Sales multiple sits near the bottom of its five-year range, even after a year of sharply better margins.
My take: NIO has done the hard part on margins, and an 18% gross margin at this scale is real progress. But the stock needs deliveries to grow again before that progress gets priced in. I’d treat the 40,000 monthly goal as unlikely and watch whether management resets it honestly.
Third-quarter results are expected in late November, and the fourth-quarter guidance will show whether the 40,000 target survives. November deliveries follow around December 1.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
