Key Takeaways
- Newmont shares fell 4% today. Its third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.20 had beaten the $1.94 consensus by 13%.
- Gold has slid back toward $4,000 an ounce, well below the $4,500 that Newmont’s 2026 guidance assumes, and the miner’s stock is following the metal.
- Management expects fourth-quarter all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,900 an ounce. Even with those costs and $4,000 gold, Newmont would keep about $2,100 an ounce, close to its 2025 level.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS to keep rising through 2028, but those estimates depend on gold holding up.
Newmont (NEM) just posted record third-quarter adjusted earnings, and the stock is down 4% today anyway.
Gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday to about $4,020 an ounce, its lowest since early August, and briefly dipped below $4,000 early this morning. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is off 2%, and Newmont, its biggest holding, is falling harder.
A beat that didn’t move the stock
After Thursday’s close, Newmont reported:
- Adjusted EPS of $2.20, 13% above the $1.94 consensus and up from $1.71 a year ago
- $1.9 billion of free cash flow
- Full-year AISC guidance improved to $1,520 an ounce
But Newmont sold its gold at an average of $4,317 an ounce in the quarter, and its 2026 guidance assumes $4,500. The company estimates that every $100 move in gold changes its annual pretax results by about $505 million.
Costs are heading the wrong way
Management expects AISC to jump to $1,900 an ounce in the fourth quarter. Sustaining capital spending is going up, and silver output at Peñasquito should fall to about half of what it was in the third quarter.
Spending is going up too. Development capital rises about $500 million next year as work ramps up on the Red Chris block cave in British Columbia. That’s a $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion project (on a 100% basis; Newmont owns 70%), and it isn’t due for commercial production until 2033.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Newmont. How many say “Buy”?
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Plenty of cushion
In the third quarter, Newmont kept about $2,860 an ounce above AISC. At $4,000 gold and $1,900 AISC, that falls to about $2,100. That’s roughly what it kept in 2025 ($3,498 realized against $1,358 of AISC).
And 2025 was a banner year, with Newmont’s operating margin climbing to 49% from 6% in 2023…
The multiple already prices in a lot
Analysts expect normalized EPS to keep climbing, from $9.20 this year to $11.71 in 2028…
If gold stays near $4,000, I’d expect the 2027 and 2028 estimates to drift lower.
Still, Newmont traded at 12x forward earnings at Thursday’s close, against a five-year average of 16x, and today’s drop takes it closer to 11x…
My take: the selloff is overdone. Even at $4,000 gold and fourth-quarter costs, Newmont would clear about $2,100 an ounce. At around 11x forward earnings, that’s a margin I’d be happy to own.
Of course, if gold breaks below $4,000 and stays there, those estimates come down and 11x won’t look as cheap. The Fed’s Oct. 28 decision is the next test for gold.
So what is Newmont stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
