Key Takeaways
- Nebius fell 19% today after Gina Hinojosa, who has called for a data center moratorium, won the Texas governor’s race.
- One neocloud rival builds in Texas, while Nebius and Applied Digital build elsewhere.
- Nebius’s real exposure is how much it still has to build.
- At about half its five-year average sales multiple, Nebius already prices in a slower build.
Nebius Group (NBIS) sank another 19% today after Gina Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott for Texas governor. She has called for an immediate moratorium on new data centers, and Wells Fargo estimates Texas holds 27% of planned US data center gigawatts.
Applied Digital (APLD) builds in North Dakota, Louisiana and Alabama, on the other side of the trade.
Nebius builds elsewhere, but it’s still building
Nebius has disclosed no Texas site. It builds in New Jersey, Missouri and Pennsylvania. But investors aren’t selling one state.
“The hurdle is going to get higher to develop in these places,” Janus Henderson portfolio manager Greg Kuhl told Bloomberg.
Nebius had about 170 megawatts active at the end of 2025, and it targets 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt connected by the end of 2026. Analysts expect revenue to grow from $530 million in 2025 to $22.9 billion in 2028, and that forecast depends on the build:
Her win doesn’t threaten a single Nebius site, so I don’t expect analysts to cut these numbers.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Nebius. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nebius, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nebius’ Analyst Ratings
IREN is the one building in Texas
IREN (IREN) fell 20% today. Its last two buildings for Microsoft at Childress are targeting delivery in the fourth quarter of 2026, and it’s developing a second Texas site at Sweetwater. It reports results after today’s close.
Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins made the opposite case in October’s results release: “we view every new restriction elsewhere as making what we already own harder to replicate.”
Bloom Energy (BE), which signed a deal with Nebius in August, fell 19% despite announcing a 900 MW deal with NTT DATA this morning. Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 11% on no news of its own. For Applied Materials, the question is whether slower data center construction means fewer chipmaking tools ordered.
Priced for a slower build
Before today’s drop, Nebius traded at 5.4x forward sales, about half its five-year average of 10.6x:
At today’s price, it’s closer to 5x.
The way I see it, investors are selling Nebius like a Texas builder. The bigger risk is a Democratic Congress writing federal rules that reach every US site it has.
Its third-quarter report, expected next week, will show whether run-rate revenue is climbing from $3.0 billion at June 30 toward the $7 billion to $9 billion management guides for December.
So what is Nebius stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Nebius could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
