Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum shares fell 18% today alongside Rigetti Computing and IonQ, with no D-Wave news behind the drop.
- Quantum stocks are trading as high-beta bets on tech risk, and Wednesday’s chip selloff carried into Thursday.
- D-Wave needs $36.5 million of second-half revenue to hit analysts’ $42.5 million for 2026.
- IBM launched a quantum error-correction platform with Oak Ridge National Laboratory today, a reminder of how deep-pocketed D-Wave’s rivals are.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) fell 18% this morning, and it had company: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is down 18%, and IonQ (IONQ) is down 15%.
The morning’s one real quantum headline came from a far bigger company. IBM (IBM) said it and AMD launched a quantum error-correction platform with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, tied to the Department of Energy’s Quantum Genesis Mission.
Quantum trades as one big bet
D-Wave put out no news. The pressure came from chip stocks: Intel, Nvidia and AMD extended a selloff that began Wednesday, after Democrats’ larger-than-expected midterm wins.
Quantum stocks burn cash, and investors are paying today for revenue that’s years away, so they trade as high-beta bets on tech’s mood. In October, D-Wave even fell when IonQ priced a $2 billion stock sale.
TIKR tracks 17 analysts on D-Wave Quantum. How many say “Buy”?
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The revenue still has to show up
Analysts expect D-Wave’s revenue to climb steeply from a small base:
That puts a lot of weight on the fourth quarter. D-Wave brought in $5.9 million in the first half of 2026, so the second half needs $36.5 million. Management expects both of this year’s system shipments to go out in the fourth quarter, including Florida Atlantic University’s $20 million machine. And revenue has come in below consensus three quarters running.
Nothing today should move those estimates. D-Wave’s next report could.
Before today’s drop, D-Wave traded at 58x forward sales, well under its three-year average of 152x:
That’s still a steep price for $3.08 million of second-quarter revenue. D-Wave had $546.2 million of cash and securities at June 30, so it isn’t under pressure today, though it burned $79.0 million of free cash flow in the first half.
IBM has much deeper pockets
IBM’s news is a longer-term problem for D-Wave. IBM generated $7.8 billion of free cash flow in the first nine months of 2026, and now it’s working with a national lab on error correction. D-Wave is going after the same problem with its gate-model program, which targets 2032. D-Wave won Commerce Department funding in September. Can it win Department of Energy work too?
IonQ goes first
The way I see it, D-Wave, Rigetti and IonQ fell because investors pulled back from tech risk, and holders learned nothing new about D-Wave’s business today. They’ll learn more when IonQ reports today, and on Nov. 10, when D-Wave has to show both fourth-quarter shipments are on track. If one slips into 2027, today’s drop could look small.
So what is D-Wave Quantum stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
