Key Takeaways
- Natera fell 14% despite a third-quarter beat and a $140 million guidance raise, as Steve Chapman handed the CEO job to Solomon Moshkevich.
- The loss was wider than expected, and spending plans rose too.
- Clinical volume for Natera’s MRD tests, including Signatera, grew 56%.
- Guardant Health beat and raised the same evening, and Natera still trades well above its usual valuation.
Natera (NTRA) delivered a big beat and raise after Thursday’s close, and the stock still sank 14% today on a wider-than-expected loss, a bigger spending plan and a surprise CEO change.
Guardant Health (GH), a cancer blood-testing rival, reported a similar quarter the same evening.
What exactly happened
Revenue rose 34% to $794 million, well ahead of the $707.5 million analysts expected. Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion and now targets $6 billion in 2029. But:
- A loss of $0.42 a share, against the $0.28 analysts expected
- SG&A guidance raised to $1.225-$1.300 billion, from $1.125-$1.225 billion
- R&D guidance raised to $825-$925 million, from $800-$900 million
That’s about $113 million more spending at the midpoints, for one-time costs, a bigger Signatera marketing push and more clinical trials.
Then Chapman, CEO for almost eight years, said on the call that “now is an excellent time to transition to new leadership for Natera.” Moshkevich, most recently president of clinical diagnostics, takes over.
Signatera keeps speeding up
Clinical volume for its MRD tests rose 56% to about 316,000.
Analysts already expected $2.91 billion of 2026 revenue going in, the top of Natera’s old range:
Those estimates should rise after this report, but Natera would still need about 40% growth in 2029 alone to reach $6 billion from the Street’s 2028 estimate.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Natera. How many say “Buy”?
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Priced for a beat
Natera traded at 17x forward sales at the start of the week, near its 20x five-year high and about double its 8.9x average:
Guardant’s quarter looked like Natera’s: revenue rose 36% to $361 million, ahead of estimates, and it raised its 2026 revenue guidance. But it also raised its spending outlook and expects to burn up to $220 million of free cash flow this year. If Guardant sinks too, the whole group was priced for perfection.
Great quarter, full price
Today’s drop looks to me like a reset on price for a business that’s still speeding up. Natera trades well above its usual multiple even now, so I’d want to see the extra spending show up in Signatera’s volume before calling it cheap.
Fourth-quarter results early next year will show whether Moshkevich can keep those MRD gains coming while spending more.
So what is Natera stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
