Key Takeaways
- MARA Holdings is up 11% in the past week on a $500 million buyback and a $750 million debt repayment.
- Third-quarter revenue fell 35%, and the quarter’s profit came from an unrealized gain on its bitcoin.
- Riot Platforms has signed an AI lease and CoreWeave raised its guidance, while MARA’s leases could slip into next year.
- The stock looks cheap on sales, but it isn’t a buy until a tenant signs.
MARA Holdings (MARA) is up 11% in the past week on a $500 million buyback and a $750 million debt payoff announced with its Nov. 9 results.
But MARA still hasn’t signed an AI tenant. Riot Platforms (RIOT) has one, and CoreWeave (CRWV) just showed the demand is still growing.
The buyback carried the week
Third-quarter revenue fell 35% to $164.2 million, as the bitcoin MARA mined fetched 37% less than a year before. Its $632.1 million profit came only thanks to an $885.3 million unrealized gain on its coins.
Investors bought the cleanup instead. After the quarter, MARA repaid $750 million of bitcoin-backed loans. Then the board authorized up to $500 million of buybacks.
MARA is still waiting on a tenant
MARA’s shareholder letter says it’s “targeting signing two leases before year-end,” but “that timing could slip into next year.”
Riot feels the same squeeze: its third-quarter mining revenue fell to $116.0 million from $160.8 million. But it has a 15-year lease of its 910-megawatt Corsicana campus with a frontier AI lab, worth about $28 billion.
And the tenants are out there. CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue guidance on Nov. 10, and its backlog grew to $132.5 billion from $104 billion in June.
TIKR tracks 15 analysts on MARA Holdings. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on MARA Holdings, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See MARA Holdings’ Analyst Ratings
Wall Street still sees a miner
Analysts expect revenue to fall from $907 million in 2025 to $700 million this year, then dip again in 2028, the year of the next halving:
MARA would need about $186 million in the fourth quarter to get there, more than any quarter so far this year, so I’d expect that estimate to come down.
The stock is priced like a miner, too, at 3.9x forward sales against a five-year average of 5.1x:
Wait for the signature
The buyback and the debt payoff were the right moves, but they don’t change what the business earns. Noteholders can still demand $924.1 million back in 2027. The discount looks deserved until a tenant signs, and I’d wait for one. Of course, if MARA signs a lease by Dec. 31, it could catch up to Riot fast.
So what is MARA stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
