Key Stats for LMT Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 30%
- 52-Week Range: $410 to $692
- Valuation Model Target Price: $729
- Implied Upside: 16%
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What Happened?
Lockheed Martin stock has gained momentum in 2026 as investors focus on rising global military spending, increasing demand for missile systems, and the need to replenish inventories amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The stock is up about 30% year to date, recently trading near $627 per share as confidence builds around long-term defense demand and multiyear contract visibility. The stock’s recent performance reflects a steady uptrend, as shown in the price chart above, with shares continuing to move higher throughout the year.
The stock has moved higher primarily because investors are pricing in sustained growth from surging demand for missile defense systems and multiyear government contracts that provide predictable revenue and earnings visibility.
Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control segment, which produces systems like PAC-3 and THAAD interceptors used to defend against incoming missiles, could grow at a double-digit rate through the end of the decade based on management commentary, a trend also benefiting defense peers like RTX and Northrop Grumman as global demand for air and missile defense continues rising.
Recently, management highlighted strong deliveries and long-term growth visibility across key programs, according to remarks at Citi’s Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference.
CEO James Taiclet said the company is making “great progress” on its strategic initiatives, including scaling production through multiyear framework agreements that are expected to drive future revenue growth, while the company continues steady F-35 production of about 156 aircraft per year with growing sustainment demand.
Recent analyst updates reflect a more balanced outlook as expectations reset higher after the rally. JPMorgan raised its price target from $515 to $680 with a Neutral rating, UBS lifted its target from $580 to $663 with a Neutral rating, and TD Cowen increased its target from $600 to $670 while maintaining a Hold rating.
Goldman Sachs raised its target from $464 to $517 but kept a Sell rating, while Weiss Ratings downgraded the stock to Hold.
Recent filings show mixed but continued institutional interest, with Clough Capital initiating a roughly $31 million position and Wellington Management holding about $1.19 billion in shares, while overall institutional ownership remains around 74%.
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Is LMT Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 5%
- Operating Margins: 12%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 18x
Revenue is expected to grow from about $79 billion in 2026 to roughly $88 billion by 2030, driven by rising demand for missile systems, steady F-35 production, and expanding international orders from U.S. allies.
As shown in the revenue growth chart, Lockheed Martin’s sales are expected to expand steadily over the next several years, supported by long-term defense contracts and increasing global demand.
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Growth is supported by rising defense budgets and replenishment cycles for missile systems, which create recurring demand as countries restock inventories and upgrade defense capabilities.
Margin expansion is expected as production scales in higher-demand segments like missiles and fire control, where larger volumes and multiyear contracts can improve operating efficiency over time.
Backlog conversion remains a key driver, as framework agreements for systems like PAC-3 and THAAD move into production, supporting stronger revenue visibility over the next year.
At current levels, Lockheed Martin appears modestly undervalued, with future performance driven by missile demand, contract execution, and sustained global defense spending.
How Much Upside Does LMT Stock Have From Here?
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- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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