Key Stats for Lockheed Martin Stock
- Current Price: $607.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$840
- Street Target (Mean): ~$633
- Potential Total Return: ~38%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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What Happened?
On Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) second-quarter earnings call in July, a Citi analyst named John Godyn put the awkward question straight to management: the demand signals say revenue is accelerating, so why has the stock spent months acting like something is wrong? Weeks later, Godyn answered with his price target. Citi lifted its number on Lockheed Martin stock to $691 from $641 and kept its Buy rating, well above the Street mean near $633 and roughly 14% above the $607.17 close on August 18.
Backlog hit an all-time high of $230 billion last quarter, up about $64 billion in a year, yet shares still sit around 12% below the 52-week high of $692. Investors searching the stock want to know whether the Street is catching up to the fundamentals, or whether the run off the spring lows already did the work.
The Analyst Who Named the Disconnect Turned Bullish
Godyn’s shift matters more than one number moving. He spent the spring at Neutral, cutting his target as low as $571 in June while defense sold off and Lockheed worked through a messy first quarter. He flipped to Buy on July 1 at $582, then walked the target up through $641 to $691. That is a cautious analyst reversing in stages, not a permanent bull repeating himself. His note argues defense stocks have bottomed and momentum should “surprise to the upside into the fall.”
On the call, Godyn asked management to justify the growth outlook. CEO Jim Taiclet pointed to the F-35, the only in-production fifth-generation fighter in the free world, at a rate he expects to hold near 156 aircraft a year. CFO Evan Scott was blunter about the stock: he framed the disconnect as investors still learning how to model the new way Lockheed gets paid for munitions, and said confidence should build as framework agreements convert into real contracts. His example was the THAAD award booked in the quarter, with a PAC-3 multiyear to follow.
On July 29, the U.S. Army awarded Lockheed a seven-year action worth up to $53.86 billion for PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors, lifting the total multiyear deal to $58.62 billion. The funding is meant to triple PAC-3 capacity by the end of 2030. The demand is not abstract: a CSIS analysis, as reported in defense trade press, estimates U.S. Patriot stocks fell roughly 65% during the five-month Iran conflict, leaving years of production just to refill what was spent.
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Why the Street Stays Split
Godyn’s $691 is one of the most bullish marks on the Street, but the mean target is only about $633, barely 4% above the price. The ratings skew cautious: 5 buys, 1 outperform, 14 holds, 2 no opinions, and 1 sell. Consensus is not that Lockheed is a bargain. It is that shares are close to fair, and Citi is the outlier, betting the market underprices the back half.
Management raised full-year sales guidance to $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion, an 8% increase at the midpoint, up from 5% a quarter earlier. All four segments are now guided to grow faster in the second half than the first, led by Missiles and Fire Control after 19% sales growth and 24% profit growth in the quarter. There is a structural sweetener too: under the new framework contracts, efficiency savings stay with Lockheed rather than getting clawed back at the next price review, which changes the incentive to invest ahead of demand.
The F-16 and C-130 lines have shown execution wobbles this year, and Space saw its full-year profit outlook trimmed on reduced ULA equity earnings tied to a Vulcan launch investigation. Scott himself flagged 20 to 30 basis points of near-term margin dilution as the big munitions ramps move through their early, lower-profit phase. A company scaling this fast has more ways to stumble on cost than on orders. On valuation, Lockheed is the cheapest of the pure-play primes: about 19.6x forward earnings and 13.4x EV/EBITDA, against RTX near 30x forward earnings, Northrop near 20x, and L3Harris near 22.5x.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $607.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$840
- Potential Total Return: ~38%
- Annualized IRR: ~8% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case model lands near $840 by the end of 2030, roughly 38% upside from here, or about 8% a year over the next four-plus years. What matters for this debate is where that sits: above both the $633 mean and Citi’s $691, which puts the model at the aggressive end of the range Godyn is only partway toward.
- Revenue drivers: the munitions ramp in Missiles and Fire Control, anchored by the PAC-3 and THAAD multiyears through 2030, plus sustained F-35 production and a growing sustainment stream.
- Margin driver: the framework-agreement structure that lets Lockheed keep efficiency gains, supporting the model’s roughly 10% net income margin.
- Primary risk: execution. If the early-phase dilution Scott flagged deepens, or the F-16, C-130, and Space pressures persist, the margin path behind this target does not hold.
The upside is a company turning a record backlog into accelerating, higher-quality earnings that the market still discounts. The downside is a serial small-charge story where demand is real, but profit keeps arriving late and light.
Conclusion
Watch the Missiles and Fire Control operating margin at the next report, currently estimated for October 20. Management has guided the segment to mid-teens margins even while absorbing the fastest production ramp in its history. A print holding at or above 14% would confirm the PAC-3 scale-up is landing at the profitability Scott promised, and hand Citi’s thesis its proof. A slip toward the low 13s, or another one-time charge, would say the Street’s caution was the right read and that $607 already reflects the good news. Godyn named the disconnect on the call. October is when the numbers settle whether he was right to bet on it closing.
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Should You Invest in Lockheed Martin?
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Pull up Lockheed Martin, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
