Key Takeaways
- A fund whose firm manages $4.73 billion held new stakes in SpaceX (SPCX) and Snowflake (SNOW) as of June 30, and a much bigger one in MongoDB (MDB), its latest 13F shows.
- SpaceX alone made up 29.1% of the fund’s 13F stocks, and it’s down 21% since June 30.
- Analysts’ average targets sit 92%, 55% and 45% above the latest close for SpaceX, Snowflake and MongoDB.
- Snowflake has the best-backed case of the three: its growth is speeding up, estimates are rising, and its multiple sits below its one-year average.
Three stocks made up more than a third of what one little-known fund held in US stocks at the end of June, and two of them were brand new positions.
Kinetic Partners Management, which manages $4.73 billion in all, held $4.19 billion of US stocks in 47 positions as of June 30, its latest 13F, filed Aug. 14.
It opened stakes in SpaceX and Snowflake, and its MongoDB stake grew more than elevenfold.
A huge bet on SpaceX
SpaceX was the fund’s biggest position by far at June 30: 7.13 million shares worth $1.22 billion, or 29.1% of its 13F holdings.
SpaceX only listed in June, so this is the first 13F that could show the stake.
The stock is down 21% since June 30, but analysts have moved the other way. Their average target has more than doubled since SpaceX listed, from $114 in June to $257 at the end of October:
That’s 92% above the latest close of $134.27, with targets running from $70 to $800.
Those targets rest on estimates that moved just as fast. Analysts raised their 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates 146% and 200% after the end of June, as SpaceX’s AI segment grew to $7.6 billion of its $14.6 billion in Q3 revenue.
But they also expect free cash flow of -$56.4 billion in 2026 and -$142.3 billion in 2027 as it builds data centers.
And Texas’ governor-elect, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, promised a moratorium on data centers, in a state Wells Fargo says holds 27% of planned US data center capacity.
At about 44x forward earnings, SpaceX needs a lot to go right.
TIKR tracks 41 analysts on SpaceX. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on SpaceX, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See SpaceX’s Analyst Ratings
Snowflake has the numbers moving its way
Snowflake is a smaller bet: 805,000 shares worth $205 million at June 30, or 4.9% of the fund’s 13F stocks, its No. 3 position. Unlike SpaceX, it’s up 8% since then.
Product revenue grew 37% to $1.49 billion in the quarter ended July 31, its third straight quarter of faster growth.
Management raised its outlook for the year ending January 2027 to $6.07 billion of product revenue, from $5.66 billion in February.
Analysts raised their earnings estimates for fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029 by 12% to 16% after June 30.
Their average target has climbed from $266 a year ago to $427 in late October, after a dip to $229 in May:
That’s 55% above the latest close. At about 109x forward earnings, Snowflake is expensive, but cheaper than its one-year average of 127x on TIKR’s figures.
The risk is what that growth costs. Management cut its full-year non-GAAP product gross margin outlook to 71% from 75%, as AI workloads that earn less per dollar grow faster.
Kinetic went much bigger on MongoDB
Kinetic already owned MongoDB, and it raised its stake 1,024% in the quarter, to 417,606 shares worth $140 million, or 3.4% of its 13F holdings. The stock is down 7% since June 30.
Revenue grew 30% to $771.8 million in the quarter ended July 31, and MongoDB raised its outlook for the year ending January 2027 to $2.99 billion to $3.03 billion, up 21% to 23%. But it guided growth of 20% to 21% for the quarter ending Oct. 31.
Analysts’ average target rose from $347 a year ago to $456 in late October:
Even the lowest target, $335, sits above the latest close of $312.83, and the average is 45% above it. At about 45x forward earnings, though, MongoDB isn’t cheap for a company guiding to slower growth.
Snowflake is the one to follow
SpaceX is the fund’s biggest bet, but the numbers back it least: its targets more than doubled while the stock fell, and analysts expect its buildout to burn cash for years.
MongoDB has every target above its price, but its guidance points to slower growth.
If I could only buy one of the three right now, it’d be Snowflake. Analysts keep raising their numbers, and its multiple is below its own one-year average.
Of course, another cut to its gross margin outlook would change that. Snowflake and MongoDB both report in early December, and Kinetic’s next 13F, due by Nov. 16, will show whether it still held all three at Sept. 30.
So what is SpaceX stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
