Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan’s Q3 EPS of $5.57 missed the roughly $5.90 consensus as noninterest expense climbed 12% to $27.3 billion.
- Net interest income rose 13% to $27.1 billion, and JPMorgan raised its 2026 NII outlook to about $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion.
- Net buybacks fell to $664 million from $6.2 billion as Jamie Dimon put franchise investment first, while the dividend rose to $1.65.
- Bloomberg reported Anthropic picked JPMorgan to lead its IPO’s U.S. retail offering, and the January 14 report will show whether deal fees rebound.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) missed on earnings. That almost never happens.
Third-quarter EPS of $5.57 fell short of the roughly $5.90 consensus, the bank’s first quarterly miss in nearly three years. Yet the stock has held up, closing Friday at $337, down 1.9% on the day and about 8% below its $367 high.
Investors are looking past the miss to two other numbers: a higher interest income outlook and a buyback that nearly vanished.
This week added a new wrinkle. Bloomberg reported that Anthropic picked JPMorgan to lead the U.S. retail portion of its IPO, and the bank’s 55ip unit is bringing tax-aware portfolio analysis into Claude for financial advisers.
Costs outran a decent quarter
Revenue held up. Managed revenue rose 8% to $50.9 billion, just shy of the $51.26 billion estimate. Expenses were the bigger issue:
- Noninterest expense climbed 12% to $27.3 billion on compensation, marketing and technology.
- Equities revenue jumped 49%, while fixed income fell 4%.
- Investment banking fees rose 14% from a year ago but dropped 8% from the second quarter.
A $658 million securities loss also cost 18 cents a share. Excluding it, EPS was $5.75, still below the Street.
The part that worked best was the balance sheet…
Managed net interest income rose 13% to $27.1 billion on deposit growth, card balances and Markets NII.
Dimon is holding capital back on purpose
Net buybacks fell to $664 million in the quarter, down from $6.2 billion. That was a choice.
Jamie Dimon said franchise investment and client support come first, and he expressed confidence the bank can deploy that capital at attractive returns over time. The standardized CET1 ratio slipped to 13.9% from 14.8% a year earlier as average loans grew 10% to $1.6 trillion.
Shareholders still got a raise. The quarterly dividend rose to $1.65 from $1.50.
Dimon also listed what worries him: large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising rates and geopolitics. Those warnings help explain why he wants a cushion.
Here’s what that pullback looks like against recent quarters:
Mandates like Anthropic’s IPO are the kind of business that spending is meant to win. Wealth management is another target, with $263 billion of net client inflows in the quarter.
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The premium now rides on NII
JPMorgan raised its 2026 NII outlook to about $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion, and NII excluding Markets to $97.2 billion. For the fourth quarter, it expects about $28 billion of total NII. Its central case for 2027 calls for roughly $107 billion of NII excluding Markets.
Expenses keep climbing as well, with full-year adjusted expense now guided to about $108.6 billion.
So is the market still paying up for this bank?
JPMorgan trades at 13.4x forward earnings. In April it fetched 14.3x, against 11.9x for Bank of America and 11.4x for Wells Fargo, and a 20% ROTCE still supports that gap.
My take: The miss came from spending Dimon chose to make, and I’m comfortable with that trade while NII guidance keeps rising. However, the buyback pause removes a steady EPS tailwind, and the Street’s $373 target leaves only about 11% upside. I’d hold rather than add here.
The next test is the January 14 report, followed by the February 22 investor day. Watch whether investment banking fees rebound and whether buybacks restart.
So what is JPMorgan Chase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
