Key Takeaways
- CEO Mike Fries bought $1.03 million of Liberty Global stock on Nov. 4, a day after promising to on the earnings call.
- The stock sits 26% below its February high, with a UK fiber deal stuck at the competition regulator.
- Cash and growth investments of about $4.9 billion exceed the roughly $3.3 billion market value.
- The figures back the buy, and the Dec. 15 UK ruling and the 2027 Ziggo spin-off are the next tests.
Liberty Global (LBTYA) CEO Mike Fries told investors on the company’s Nov. 3 earnings call that he’d be buying shares as soon as his trading window opened. He wasn’t bluffing.
A Form 4 filed Nov. 5 shows Fries bought 110,000 Class A shares the next day at an average of $9.37, or $1.03 million in all. He didn’t catch the bottom: the stock jumped 12.4% that day, and he paid about 27% above the Oct. 26 low. At $9.99, it’s still 26% below its Feb. 18 high of $13.52.
Blame the UK
On Oct. 2, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority provisionally found that nexfibre’s £2 billion (about $2.7 billion) purchase of fiber builder Netomnia could substantially reduce competition. Nexfibre’s owners, Liberty Global, Telefónica and InfraVia, said on Oct. 20 they wouldn’t offer remedies, and Fries told the call they “remain committed.” A final decision is due by Dec. 15.
The third-quarter report didn’t help. Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global’s UK venture with Telefónica, saw revenue fall 5.0%, and its planned 2026 payouts of around £200 million (about $265 million) are under review until Netomnia is settled. The Netherlands went better: VodafoneZiggo grew revenue for the first time since mid-2024, and the Ziggo Group spin-off is on track for the second quarter of 2027.
He’s Run This Play Before
The purchase raised Fries’s direct Class A holding by about 10%, to 1,238,525 shares, worth about $11.6 million at what he paid. His reasoning on the call: “Now it’s difficult to not see the value here. And for what it’s worth, I will be in the market buying shares tomorrow when my window opens as well.”
He had just pointed to Sunrise, spun off in November 2024, which he said trades at around $11 per Liberty share and has paid $600 million in dividends. Then: “I’ve seen this movie before.” The company is buying too: third-quarter buybacks of $100 million retired 2.9% of its shares.
TIKR Tracks 11 Analysts on Liberty Global. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Liberty Global, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Liberty Global’s Analyst Ratings
Does $9.37 Add Up?
Liberty Global ended the quarter with about $2 billion of corporate cash and a growth portfolio it values at about $2.9 billion. Against a $3.3 billion market value, that puts a negative value on the telecom businesses.
Analysts’ revenue estimates jump from 2025 to 2027:
Most of that is VodafoneZiggo moving onto the books after the July 31 buyout: consolidated revenue rose 59% as reported, but 1.0% rebased. Analysts widened their 2026 loss estimate to $1.26 a share from $1.16 90 days ago, but narrowed 2027’s to $0.98 from $1.33.
With losses expected both years, the stock trades on forward sales. At 0.4x, it sits near its five-year low, though the bigger sales base does part of that work:
Targets have drifted lower:
The mean target slipped to $14.51 from $15.50 a year earlier, still 45% above the current price and 55% above what Fries paid.
Fries Paid a Fair Price for Liberty Global
The UK is the risk. If the CMA blocks Netomnia and Virgin Media O2’s £800 million (about $1.06 billion) cost-cutting plan falls short, less cash comes back to shareholders. But cash and investments worth more than the company, a multiple well under its 1.0x five-year average, and a dated spin-off make the case. The figures back Fries’s buy at $9.37.
Anyone who tracks what insiders are buying knows one purchase is only a signal. The CMA rules by Dec. 15, and full-year results in early 2027 should settle the UK payout.
So What is Liberty Global Stock Actually Worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Liberty Global could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
