Key Takeaways
- UBS cut its AST SpaceMobile price target to $43 from $78 on Nov. 10 and kept its Neutral rating, a day after third-quarter results.
- AST pushed its goal of about 45 satellites in orbit back to mid-2027, and its next three satellites are still waiting on SpaceX for a launch date.
- Analysts’ 2027 revenue estimate has fallen to $580 million from $748 million at the end of June, while the Street’s average target of $68 still sits 85% above the stock.
- UBS’s lower target is closer to what the numbers support than the Street’s, though the stock already trades below it.
UBS cut its price target on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) to $43 from $78 on Nov. 10, the day after third-quarter results, and kept its Neutral rating. The stock is 73% below its May high, so even that lower target sits 18% above today’s price.
The problem is still getting satellites into orbit. AST’s next three are waiting on SpaceX (SPCX) for a launch date.
The satellite goal slipped again
AST’s third-quarter revenue of $42.3 million came in short of the $46 million analysts expected.
AST now aims to have about 45 BlueBirds in orbit by mid-2027. Its target had been early 2027 since July, and before that the end of 2026.
A few days before the results, AST laid out Blacklift, its own 20-ton reusable rocket due to fly in late 2028, backed by an engine deal worth more than $1.3 billion, paid partly in stock.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
Does $43 add up?
UBS isn’t alone. Bank of America cut to $45 from $80 the same morning, warning that launches could slip and that Blacklift adds risk, and B. Riley cut to $48 from $65. Both kept Neutral ratings.
The Street’s average target has slid since April, from a high of $89 to $68 now:
Targets run from $39 to $108, so UBS sits near the bottom of the range.
Analysts still expect revenue to more than triple in 2027, to $580 million, and reach $1.65 billion in 2028:
But those estimates are falling. At the end of June, analysts expected $748 million of revenue in 2027.
AST traded at 23x forward sales at the last close, against a five-year average of 60x:
UBS’s $43 works out to 30x forward sales. That’s above today’s multiple and well under the five-year average. (That average includes a 205x peak in October 2025, so it’s a generous yardstick.)
UBS has the better number
The risk is more dilution, since AST is still spending heavily before any service revenue comes in.
I don’t think UBS is wrong. Estimates for 2027 are still falling and the satellite target has slipped twice this year, so $43 is closer to what the numbers support than the Street’s $68. The stock already trades below $43, though, so most of the bad news looks priced in. The next test is a SpaceX launch date for BlueBirds 14 to 16.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
