Key Takeaways
- IREN stock has lost 63% in the past year. Worries about debt-funded build-outs hit CoreWeave and the other AI cloud builders, and IREN’s own build kept needing more money.
- AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200 million last quarter, but a Microsoft-requested design change helped push IREN’s $4 billion run-rate target to January, and Nvidia, another big customer, lost its CEO.
- IREN has paid for much of its build with stock: its diluted share count rose nearly eightfold from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2026, and $6 billion of this fiscal year’s build is still unfunded.
- The stock trades at less than half its 3-year average forward sales multiple, but it’s worth waiting to see IREN raise that $6 billion mostly with loans before buying more.
IREN (IREN) stock has lost 63% in the past year and sits 74% below its June intraday high, even as its AI cloud revenue took off. The trouble is the bill for the build, and the two customers it leans on most, Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), both got more careful this fall.
Debt worries hit AI cloud builders in October, and CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 32% in a year. But CoreWeave reported a $132.5 billion revenue backlog on Nov. 10, and IREN fell nearly twice as far, on problems of its own.
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The growth showed up, a few months late
IREN’s Nov. 5 report showed AI Cloud revenue nearly tripling from the June quarter to $200 million, and backlog reached $20.3 billion. A day earlier, The Information tied a Microsoft spending delay to IREN’s Childress campus. IREN’s release confirmed a delay: its $4 billion-plus run-rate revenue target moved from year-end to January, maybe February. On the call, co-CEO Daniel Roberts said Microsoft had asked IREN to “reconfigure and upgrade some of the network infrastructure.”
Analysts still see revenue more than tripling to $2.39 billion in the year to June 2027, then roughly tripling again:
That fiscal 2027 estimate was $2.81 billion in late October. CFO Anthony Lewis said the new halls won’t bring in material revenue in the December quarter, so more cuts look likely.
Shareholders paid for the build
IREN’s capex has outrun its operating cash flow every year since fiscal 2022, and stock has filled much of the gap. Its diluted share count went from 40.9 million in fiscal 2022 to 223 million in fiscal 2025:
It reached 316 million in fiscal 2026, nearly eight times the 2022 count, and IREN has since issued 12.6 million shares to buy Mirantis. And $6 billion of the $15 billion it still plans to spend this fiscal year isn’t funded yet.
Both anchor customers got careful
Microsoft and Nvidia bear on that $6 billion. The GPU loans behind Microsoft’s five-year, $9.7 billion contract cost IREN a weighted 6.0%, against 9.0% for customers without investment-grade credit, so big-name contracts mean cheaper money. But Microsoft’s capex fell short of expectations on Oct. 28, and Bloomberg reported Nov. 5 that Microsoft is tightening oversight of some IREN projects.
Nvidia signed a five-year, $3.4 billion contract with IREN in May and can buy up to 30 million IREN shares at $70. After Nvidia announced Jensen Huang’s resignation on Nov. 12, The Information reported that Nvidia is expected to slow its investing in AI companies, credit guarantees included. The signed contract should hold, but selling 2027 capacity may get harder.
Wait for the loan
Roberts’s answer, in the release: “We own the land, the power and the data centers under all of it, which gives us more ways to fund growth and lets us set its pace.” Those data centers carry no debt, and management counts $12 billion to $15 billion of possible loans and prepayments ahead of convertibles or new shares. But a week before Huang’s exit, Roberts also said “capital markets have become more selective in the last few weeks.” IREN trades at 2.4x the sales analysts expect over the next twelve months, less than half its 3-year average:
With $20.3 billion of backlog, selling at that multiple looks premature. Loading up can wait until IREN raises most of that $6 billion with loans against its data centers. Watch for three things early next year: the $4 billion run rate going live, Microsoft signing off on Horizons 2 to 4, and IREN’s first loan against a data center.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
