Key Takeaways
- NIO stock fell 14% in a week to a new 52-week low with no major company news, as XPeng and Li Auto slid too while the broader market rose.
- October’s drop in deliveries has investors doubting NIO’s fourth quarter.
- NIO now needs about 43,000 deliveries a month in November and December to hit its goal of more than 40,000 a month this quarter.
- The forward price/sales multiple sits at a five-year low, but the third-quarter report has to show vehicle margin holding near 18.5% before this looks like a bottom.
NIO (NIO) stock fell 14% in the week to Nov. 13, closing at $2.90, a new 52-week low and a level last seen in 2020. The company had no major news, and the S&P 500 rose 2.5% over the same stretch.
XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) slid with it, falling 3.8% and 3.7% on Nov. 12. XPeng fell even though it delivered a record 50,237 cars in October, up 20%. Li Auto has weaker growth to point to, with analysts expecting its revenue to rise just 0.5% in fiscal 2026. The selling hit the whole group, and NIO gave investors an extra reason.
NIO needs a big November and December
NIO delivered 34,246 cars in October, down 15.2% from 40,397 a year earlier and below September’s 37,408. ONVO, its family brand, was behind the whole decline: its deliveries fell 51.7% to 8,383, while the NIO brand rose 5.7%. On its Sept. 1 earnings call, management set a goal of more than 40,000 deliveries a month this quarter, a target it tied to a recovery in China’s car market. Hitting it now takes about 43,000 a month in November and December.
Analysts built their forecasts around that pace, with consensus revenue rising from RMB87.5 billion in 2025 to about RMB128 billion this year and RMB169 billion by 2028.
If the quarter falls short, this year’s estimate is the first one analysts would cut.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on NIO. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on NIO, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See NIO’s Analyst Ratings
Cheap, but the margin has to hold
Margin is NIO’s strongest argument. Second-quarter revenue jumped 69.1% to RMB32.14 billion, and vehicle margin climbed to 18.5% from 10.3% a year earlier. Management aims to hold vehicle margin near that level for the rest of the year, even though it says costs per car rose about RMB14,000 from late 2025. Third-quarter results, expected later this month, will show whether it held.
The market is giving NIO almost no credit for that turn. Its forward price/sales multiple sits at about 0.4x, the bottom of its five-year range and far below its 1.6x average.
The selling doesn’t look overdone yet. NIO has been cheap for months, and October gave investors a real reason to doubt the fourth quarter. If vehicle margin holds near 18.5%, this price looks too low. If it slips, the multiple can stay down here for a while. XPeng’s results, due before the U.S. open on Nov. 16, are the first test of whether the group selling has a reason behind it. NIO’s November deliveries, due in early December, are the next check on the 40,000 goal.
So what is NIO stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
