Key Takeaways for Home Depot Stock as of July 2026
- Thirty-seven analysts split 17 buy, 4 outperform, 15 hold and 1 underperform on Home Depot stock, with a mean target near $370, an 8% premium to the current $343 close.
- Modeling Home Depot stock through TIKR’s mid case scenario to January 2031 yields a $524 target, a 53% total return and 10% annualized.
- With EBITDA margin bottoming at 13% in the January 2026 quarter and set to reach 17% by July 2027, Home Depot stock looks undervalued against an operating leverage recovery the Street’s $370 target barely credits.
- SRS closed Mingledorff’s HVAC deal May 11, 2026, lifting Pro TAM to $1.2 trillion.
Home Depot Stock Sank to a 52-Week Low Even as Q1 Sales Topped Estimates
Home Depot (HD) posted fiscal first quarter sales of $41.8 billion on May 19, 2026, up 4.8% from a year earlier and ahead of the $41.52 billion Wall Street expected. Home Depot stock still slid to $289 that day, its lowest close since November 2023.
Adjusted EPS fell 3.7% to $3.43 from $3.56 a year earlier, beating the $3.41 consensus but still marking a decline. That erosion showed up hardest in EBITDA, which fell 3.3% year over year to $6.06 billion as margin compressed to 14.5%, extending a slide that had pulled margin as low as 12.9% three months earlier.
Comparable customer transactions dropped 1.3% while average ticket climbed 2.2%, evidence that fewer shoppers spent more per visit as large remodeling projects stalled.
CEO Ted Decker addressed that pullback directly on the Q1 earnings call: “Our customer seems to be in reasonably good shape… The main thing is just this uncertainty that’s holding them back for taking on large projects.” That uncertainty, he said, was concentrated in complex, multi-category purchases rather than smaller repair jobs.
Five days before results, on May 11, 2026, SRS closed its acquisition of HVAC distributor Mingledorff’s, adding 42 locations across five southeastern states and pushing Home Depot’s total Pro-focused addressable market to $1.2 trillion. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance for comparable sales of flat to 2% growth and diluted EPS growth of flat to 4%, betting the margin trough is behind the business.
Home Depot stock has since climbed back to $343, up 19% from its post-earnings low but still 20% below the 52-week high of $427.
Wall Street Holds a Cautious Buy on Home Depot Stock After the Q1 Pullback
Thirty-seven analysts cover Home Depot stock with a consensus that leans bullish but not aggressively so: 17 rate it a buy, 4 call it an outperform, 15 sit at hold and 1 rates it underperform. The mean target of $370 sits just 8% above the current $343 close, down from $408 as of early May, showing the Street trimmed expectations even as shares partially recovered off their post-earnings low.
Targets across the 32 contributors range from a high of $430 to a low of $310, a spread wide enough to reflect real disagreement over how quickly the housing-driven pressure on large remodels eases.
Wall Street Expects Home Depot Stock’s EBITDA Margin to Rebound to 17% by Mid-2027
EBITDA fell 3.3% year over year to $6.06 billion in the quarter ended April 30, 2026, with margin at 14.5%, extending the slide from a 12.9% trough three months earlier.
Consensus models EBITDA climbing to $8 billion in the July 2026 quarter, essentially flat year over year, as margin recovers to 16%, before easing to $7 billion in the October quarter as the seasonal mix shifts.
By the January 2027 quarter, estimates call for EBITDA of $5 billion, up 4% year over year, before margin reaches 17% and EBITDA hits $8 billion in the July 2027 quarter, up 7%.
Bulls point to margin expanding roughly 250 basis points from the April 2026 print through the July 2027 estimate. Bears counter that fiscal 2026 comp sales guidance tops out at 2% growth, leaving the margin story dependent on cost control rather than a demand rebound.
TIKR Values Home Depot Stock at $524, Pricing In a Full Margin Recovery
TIKR’s mid case model values Home Depot stock at $524 by a January 2031 realization date, a 53% total return from the current $343 price, or 10% annualized over roughly four and a half years.
That 10% annualized rate sits well above the stock’s trailing one-year return of negative 7.2% and its trailing five-year annualized rate of 1.5%, positioning the mid case as a bet that Home Depot stock’s worst stretch since 2023 is behind it rather than ahead of it.
Accordingly, the target’s plausibility rests on the same margin trajectory analysts are already modeling, with EBITDA margin recovering from April 2026’s 14.5% trough toward 17% by mid-2027 as the Mingledorff’s HVAC platform scales and comp sales stabilize, reversing the multiple compression that has pulled Home Depot stock down 20% from its high.
Should You Invest in The Home Depot, Inc.?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
