Key Takeaways
- Eli Lilly hit a record high on Friday after raising its 2026 revenue forecast to $91-$92 billion, lifting its market value to about $1.1 trillion, level with Berkshire Hathaway.
- Macro investor Jordi Visser says Lilly will become the world’s most valuable company because healthcare spending recurs every year, while Nvidia is more exposed to disruption.
- Analysts expect Nvidia’s earnings per share to more than quadruple over three years, so Lilly passing it would take Nvidia’s estimates breaking.
- Lilly trades at roughly 34x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 40x, which makes its steady demand worth owning whether or not it ever passes Nvidia.
Eli Lilly (LLY) hit a record high on Friday, and it’s now worth about $1.1 trillion, as much as Berkshire Hathaway.
The rally came after a monster quarter. Third-quarter sales jumped 39%, and Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91-$92 billion, from $85-$87 billion.
Macro investor Jordi Visser thinks Lilly is just getting started. He and Anthony Pompliano dug into Lilly’s record quarter on Pompliano’s latest podcast, and Pompliano summed up Visser’s take on X: “Jordi Visser believes Eli Lilly will become the most valuable company in the world.”
Visser’s reasoning: Lilly rides the healthcare spending that happens every year, plus heavy investment in AI, while Nvidia (NVDA) is more exposed to disruption.
That’s a big call. Nvidia was worth $4.9 trillion at Friday’s close, second only to Apple, so Lilly’s value would have to more than quadruple just to catch it.
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Demand that doesn’t take a year off
Visser is right about Lilly. Its growth comes from exactly the kind of spending he describes, and Lilly has pulled well ahead in GLP-1 drugs: “Eli Lilly has taken up 60% of the market share,” investor Hari Ramachandra said on Saturday’s episode of We Study Billionaires.
And Lilly is growing right through its price cuts. Third-quarter volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%, and CFO Lucas Montarce told analysts on Thursday’s call that volume growth would more than make up for pressure on prices.
Washington hasn’t dented that yet, either. Lilly, Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb all posted record quarterly revenue on Thursday and raised their forecasts for the year, after a year of President Trump pressing drugmakers to cut prices.
Analysts expect the growth to keep coming, with Lilly’s revenue climbing from $65.2 billion in 2025 to $117 billion in 2028:
Nvidia’s estimates climb faster
Nvidia’s side of the comparison is harder for Visser. Analysts expect its normalized EPS to go from $4.77 in the year ended January 2026 to $21.34 in the year to January 2029:
That’s earnings more than quadrupling in three years. Over a similar stretch, analysts expect Lilly’s EPS to a little more than double, from $24.21 in 2025 to about $54 in 2028.
So for Lilly to pass Nvidia anytime soon, Nvidia’s estimates have to crack. Those estimates depend on AI labs and cloud giants keeping up their chip budgets, and a chip budget is a lot easier to cut than a patient’s refill.
Lilly doesn’t need to win the race
Lilly doesn’t have to pass Nvidia to reward shareholders, though. It trades at roughly 34x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 40x and about half its 67x peak in October 2023:
So you’re paying less for Lilly’s earnings than investors have for most of the last five years.
Of course, all that steadiness rests on one molecule. Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, made 65% of Lilly’s revenue in the first half of 2026, and generic makers filed to sell copies of both in July, according to its quarterly filing.
I don’t see Lilly passing Nvidia unless Nvidia stumbles first. But Visser has the reasoning right, and it’s the best case for owning Lilly: demand that comes back every year, at a multiple below its own average. I’ll take that over a bet on the next leg of AI spending.
Lilly’s Dec. 7 investor update is the next check, when management lays out its long-term targets for margins and spending.
So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
