Key Takeaways
- Anthropic’s amended IPO filing shows third-quarter revenue up about 46% from the second quarter, while its compute and infrastructure costs rose about 77%.
- Anthropic is spending faster than it earns. That brings revenue forward for Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Broadcom, but more of what Anthropic has promised them now depends on Anthropic raising more money.
- Anthropic’s $895 billion of commitments are almost seven times the $132 billion of cash and short-term investments it held at the end of September.
- Amazon and Alphabet can absorb an Anthropic slowdown. Broadcom holds the biggest single commitment and backs part of the financing, so it has the most riding on Anthropic.
Anthropic just showed investors how fast it’s spending. That’s good news for Amazon (AMZN), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Broadcom (AVGO), the companies it’s spending with.
Its amended IPO filing came out Nov. 2 and added third-quarter results: revenue of about $17 billion, up 46% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter. Compute and infrastructure costs rose 77%.
The first filing ran through June, and it had revenue growing faster than compute. So when a post on X flagged the reversal, Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner replied that investors had seen it coming and that the fourth quarter would look the same:
“They have shown what is possible & now are stomping on the gas – reinvesting their cash flows to widen the moat & extend their lead.”
He added that the goal is winning the huge prize in the long game. (His firm is an Anthropic investor, so he’s hardly a neutral party.)
TIKR Tracks 60 Analysts on Amazon. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Amazon, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Amazon’s Analyst Ratings
The bill is growing faster than the business
Compute cost Anthropic $9.9 billion in the third quarter, up from $5.6 billion in the second. That’s close to 60% of revenue, up from under half a quarter earlier.
Part of it came from demand. Anthropic books most of its computing 12 to 18 months ahead. When demand ran past that capacity, it bought $5 billion of short-term computing that the filing says costs far more than its long-term deals.
The company swung to a $567 million operating loss, after a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter. Anthropic said that loss was primarily driven by the $5 billion of short-term compute and a $2 billion non-cash charge for its donation matching program.
Amazon, Google and Broadcom get paid sooner
Every dollar Anthropic reinvests ends up with a supplier, and its $895 billion of commitments include these three:
- About $161 billion of equipment leases with Broadcom
- About $121.3 billion with Google
- $110 billion with Amazon
Analysts expect Amazon’s revenue to climb from $717 billion in 2025 to $1.12 trillion in 2028:
Anthropic’s $110 billion runs through 2036, so call it $11 billion a year. That’s small next to the $950 billion analysts expect for 2027, but it still equals about a fifth of AWS’s $578 billion backlog. And Amazon valued its Anthropic stake at $190.4 billion at June 30, so it cares about the IPO price as an owner too.
Alphabet’s revenue is expected to nearly double, from $403 billion in 2025 to $776 billion in 2028:
Beyond its $121.3 billion Google commitment, Anthropic estimates another $125 billion to $150 billion of spending on additional capacity built on Google’s TPU chips.
Broadcom’s expected jump is the steepest, from $63.9 billion in fiscal 2025 to $272 billion in fiscal 2028 (its years end in October):
The $161 billion is rent Anthropic pays over five-year leases, not Broadcom’s revenue. Broadcom gets paid when it sells the chips: under a $63 billion deal announced Oct. 26, a special purpose vehicle backed by Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone buys Broadcom’s hardware and leases it to Anthropic, with deliveries starting in 2027. But Broadcom also backs the lenders with residual value support, and it has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to pay that rent. That makes Broadcom part supplier, part lender.
Anthropic’s suppliers are also its backstop
Anthropic’s commitments are almost seven times the $132 billion of cash and short-term investments it held at the end of September. About $70 billion comes due within a year, and nearly $450 billion by the end of 2030.
Anthropic says its cash, its $15 billion credit line and the IPO proceeds cover at least the next 12 months. Beyond that, it can draw up to $77 billion of conditional financing, and all of it comes from the suppliers it owes: up to $20 billion from Google, $15 billion from Amazon and $42 billion from Broadcom, which can only be used to pay Broadcom’s lease rent. If Anthropic needs that money, its suppliers would be lending it the cash to keep paying them.
Broadcom has the most riding on it
Anthropic stomping on the gas is good news for all three suppliers right now. Amazon and Alphabet are big enough that an Anthropic stumble wouldn’t change their stories.
Broadcom is the one to watch. It doesn’t just sell Anthropic chips. It stands behind the lenders and can lend Anthropic the rent money too, so if Anthropic stumbles, Broadcom carries more of the risk than either cloud giant.
Anthropic still hasn’t filled in the price range or the share count. Once it does, we’ll know how much it can raise to pay for all that fuel.
So what is Broadcom stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Broadcom could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
