Key Takeaways
- Ford Motor (F) stock gained 2% in the month through October 30, with most of the increase following its third-quarter earnings report.
- General Motors (GM) climbed 14% over the same period, supported by stronger profit growth.
- Ford generated $4.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow during Q3 and raised its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance floor to $10.5 billion.
- At about 7x forward earnings with a 4.9% dividend yield, Ford looks undervalued despite expectations for a flat 2027.
What Happened?
Ford stock gained 2% in the month through October 30, with nearly all of the advance coming after its October 28 third-quarter earnings report.
GM performed considerably better, rising 14% over the same period. Ford nevertheless outperformed the broader market, as the S&P 500 declined 1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 7%.
Ford reported adjusted EPS of $0.49, beating the $0.40 consensus estimate. Adjusted EBIT increased 3% year over year to $2.7 billion, supported by a smaller Ford Model e loss and a 27% increase in Ford Credit earnings, offsetting weaker results at Ford Blue and Ford Pro.
Cash generation was particularly encouraging. After producing just $220 million in adjusted free cash flow during the first half of 2026, Ford delivered $4.7 billion in Q3 and maintained its full-year guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion.
Ford’s 2027 Outlook Remains a Concern
Ford expects 2027 profitability to remain roughly in line with 2026. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $14 to $12, Morgan Stanley reduced its target from $14 to $13, and RBC cut its target from $15 to $14.
CFO Sherry House said Ford expects “the next step function change in profitability” during the first half of 2028 as its electric vehicle platform and energy business ramp up.
TIKR consensus estimates as of October 20 projected normalized EPS of $1.84 in 2026 and $1.92 in 2027, representing approximately 4% growth.
These estimates predate Ford’s latest results, but they suggest analysts were already expecting limited earnings growth in 2027.
GM’s Stronger Profit Growth Explains the Difference
GM’s third-quarter EBIT-adjusted increased 22% year over year to $4.1 billion, compared with Ford’s 3% growth.
GM also narrowed its 2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance to $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, raising the lower end while reducing the upper end.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on Ford. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Ford, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Ford’s Analyst Ratings.
Undervalued or Overvalued?
Ford traded at 6.8x forward earnings on October 22, below its five-year average of 7.8x and its early-2022 peak of nearly 13x.
At its October 30 closing price of $12.25, Ford traded at approximately 7x forward earnings and offered a regular dividend yield of 4.9%. Its valuation already reflects expectations for limited earnings growth in 2027, while improved cash generation supports the investment case. Risks remain, particularly weaker Ford Pro profitability and delays in initiatives expected to improve earnings in 2028. The dividend provides income while shareholders wait, although sustaining those payments depends on continued cash generation. Overall, Ford looks undervalued, making the recent gain a potential buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell.
So what is Ford stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
