Key Takeaways
- DoorDash stock rose 8% today after Uber said its Delivery gross bookings grew 22% to $28.5 billion in the third quarter.
- Uber’s ride-hailing revenue fell 2%, so delivery looks like the stronger business, and it’s DoorDash’s whole business.
- Uber’s delivery growth matched DoorDash’s own 23% excluding Deliveroo, and both outgrew Instacart, which DoorDash agreed to buy for about $17 billion.
- Analysts expect DoorDash’s revenue to reach $25.7 billion in 2028, and the Instacart deal still needs antitrust approval.
DoorDash (DASH) stock is up 8% today on someone else’s earnings report.
Uber Technologies (UBER) said before the open that its Delivery gross bookings grew 22% in the third quarter (23% in constant currency) to $28.5 billion. Its ride-hailing revenue fell 2% to $7.52 billion, which CEO Dara Khosrowshahi blamed on too few drivers in several international markets. Uber stock rose 7%.
That’s a read on Instacart (CART), too, which DoorDash agreed to buy for about $17 billion last week.
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Uber’s delivery arm had the better quarter
Uber’s Delivery revenue rose 23% to $5.49 billion. Delivery’s segment operating income grew 30% to $1.06 billion, faster than ride-hailing’s 27%. On the call, Khosrowshahi pointed to “organic growth accelerating.”
DoorDash is growing at the same pace. Excluding Deliveroo, its Marketplace GOV rose 23% in the third quarter, it said in its Oct. 29 release, and its restaurant business grew faster than in any third quarter since 2020.
So the whole category is growing faster than ride-hailing, and DoorDash has the biggest slice: Consumer Edge’s card data put it at 59% of delivery-app spending in the third quarter, against 18% each for Uber Eats and Instacart.
Instacart is growing more slowly. Its gross transaction value rose 15% to $10.5 billion in the third quarter, and its stock is up 2% today. Plus, Uber is pushing into grocery: Khosrowshahi said its expanded Costco partnership is “tracking ahead of expectations.” DoorDash added Costco nationwide on Sept. 17, too. Can Instacart hold its ground against both while regulators review the deal?
DoorDash still isn’t priced for it
Analysts expect DoorDash’s revenue to keep climbing, from $13.7 billion in 2025 to $25.7 billion in 2028:
I wouldn’t expect analysts to change those estimates because of Uber’s report. But a rival growing delivery 22% makes them easier to believe.
Before today’s jump, DoorDash traded at 28x forward earnings, against a three-year average of 39x. Today’s jump still leaves it well below its usual level.
The risk is the Instacart deal: DoorDash is paying at least 75% of it in cash, partly with new debt, and it still needs antitrust approval.
The way I see it, Uber just showed that people are still ordering more delivery, and DoorDash gets the biggest share of it at one of its cheapest multiples in years. Of course, it still has to show that 2026’s heavy spending comes off, starting with its fourth-quarter report in February.
So what is DoorDash stock actually worth?
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