Key Takeaways
- D-Wave Quantum stock is down 62% in the past year and set a new 52-week low this week. That’s a steeper fall than IonQ’s 47% but smaller than Rigetti’s 71%.
- Revenue shrank in the first half of 2026 while bookings jumped 1,120%, and a class action filed in October alleges those bookings came mostly from two older contracts.
- Even after the drop, the stock trades at 67x forward sales, and the Street’s 2026 revenue estimate needs a far bigger second half.
- The selling doesn’t look overdone until the third-quarter report, expected in early November, shows systems delivered and bookings turning into revenue.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) had plenty of good headlines this year: federal money, a partnership with AT&T (T), a gate-model simulator in customers’ hands. The stock is still down 62% in the past year (through Friday’s close), and it set a new 52-week low this week.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is down 71% over the same stretch, and IonQ (IONQ) 47%. But D-Wave’s own numbers gave investors plenty of reasons to sell.
What exactly happened
- In January, D-Wave agreed to buy Quantum Circuits for $550 million: $250 million in cash and $300 million in D-Wave stock.
- In May, first-quarter revenue fell 81% from a year earlier, when the year-ago quarter included a system sale. Nine days later, the Commerce Department’s letters of intent put $100 million on the table for D-Wave.
- In August, second-quarter revenue of $3.08 million missed the $4.03 million analysts expected, with a wider loss than forecast.
- In September, D-Wave finalized a CHIPS Act deal worth up to $100 million in exchange for a minority government stake, which means more dilution. Rigetti got a matching deal.
- In October, quantum stocks, IonQ and Rigetti included, slid with tech. D-Wave is down 31% in the past month.
That’s a lot of headlines for a company that brought in about $5.9 million of revenue in the first half.
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The bookings are the whole bull case now
D-Wave’s answer to the shrinking top line has been bookings. First-half bookings jumped 1,120% to $35.5 million, and the backlog climbed to $40.7 million.
Consensus calls for $42.5 million of revenue in 2026 and $80.6 million in 2027. From 2022 to 2025, D-Wave’s revenue ran between $7 million and $25 million a year.
Hitting this year’s number would take about $37 million in the second half, more than six times the first half’s revenue. Management has already said most of 2026’s revenue will land in the fourth quarter. It also expects only about 57% of the backlog, roughly $23 million, to turn into revenue within 12 months. Even if all of that landed in 2026, it would take the year to about $29 million. Reaching consensus would still require roughly $13 million from other revenue sources or faster conversion of the remaining backlog.
That’s why the securities class action filed Oct. 15 in federal court in Northern California matters. It alleges the record 2026 bookings came mostly from two older contracts, with no comparable new deals behind them. It also alleges that system deliveries were slipping into the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027.
These are allegations, unproven so far. But they go right at the number the bull case rests on. (D-Wave did announce a delivery the same day: an Advantage2 system arrived in Como, Italy, for installation.)
Everything rides on the third quarter
D-Wave’s third-quarter report is expected in early November. Three questions matter: did systems ship, how much of the $40.7 million backlog turned into revenue, and did new bookings come in beyond those two contracts?
I’d wait for proof before buying D-Wave
D-Wave stock now trades at 67x forward sales. That’s well under its three-year average of 151x and a fraction of the 839x it hit in October 2025.
(That’s still far above the 5x it traded at in October 2023, before the quantum rally.)
Wall Street has gone the other way. Analysts’ mean target is $35, up from $26 a year ago, while the stock fell from $31 to under $12.
The stock had already fallen 59% from its highs by July, and it has kept sliding since.
Liquidity isn’t the near-term problem: D-Wave had $546 million in cash and marketable securities at the end of June. The CHIPS deal adds up to $100 million more, about $54 million up front and the rest tied to milestones.
So no, the selling isn’t overdone yet. At 67x forward sales, D-Wave stock still prices in bookings turning into revenue on schedule, and that’s exactly what the lawsuit calls into question. A third-quarter report that shows systems delivered and revenue catching up to the backlog would change the call. Until then, I’m not buying.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
