Key Takeaways
- B. Riley raised its Riot Platforms price target to $37 from $25 on Nov. 11 and kept its Buy rating, a call for 102% upside.
- The firm’s case rests on the Corsicana lease, a 15-year deal with a frontier AI lab worth about $28 billion.
- At $37, Riot would trade at 18x the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months, but most of the lease rent only starts in late 2027.
- The Street’s $32 average target is the safer anchor until Riot finances its builds with project debt.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $18.28 on Nov. 11, 36% below its June 23 closing high of $28.69, despite signing its biggest lease ever on Nov. 4. On Nov. 11, B. Riley’s new $37 target implied 102% upside.
Bitcoin and Tighter Credit Did the Damage
Riot’s third-quarter mining revenue fell to $116.0 million from $160.8 million a year earlier, as the average price of a coin dropped to $70,855 from $114,361. Riot sold 20,264 bitcoin for about $1.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and ended September with 2,418.
Then lending got harder. On the Nov. 4 call, CFO Jason Chung pointed to “credit-led spread widening since September,” with lenders digging deeper into tenant credit, power and delivery records. That weighed on the AI data center group.
B. Riley Is All In on Corsicana
B. Riley’s Nick Giles says the Corsicana lease materially changed how Riot should be valued, and the firm lifted its 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.19 billion from $389 million. The lease gives a frontier AI lab all 910 megawatts at Corsicana for about $28 billion, or about $1.8 billion of average annual rent at a roughly 99% NOI margin. The powered-land structure puts Riot’s cost at about $6 million per IT megawatt, roughly half a typical Tier 3 build. B. Riley also says a successful financing is the first hurdle to meaningful upside.
TIKR Tracks 22 Analysts on Riot Platforms. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Riot Platforms, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Riot Platforms’ Analyst Ratings
Does B. Riley’s $37 Add Up for Riot Stock?
Twenty-two analysts cover Riot, and their average target has climbed to $32 from $27 a year ago. B. Riley’s $37 is 15% above it.
Analysts expect revenue of $867 million in 2027, then $1.83 billion in 2028, more than double, as lease rent comes in.
But they now expect a loss of $1.70 a share for 2026, against $1.25 three months ago, and $0.95 for 2027, against $0.70. With no earnings to price, Riot traded at 8.9x forward sales on Nov. 11, against a five-year average of 6.2x.
At $37, investors would pay 18x the sales analysts expect over the next 12 months, above the 16x peak of June 23. But a year from now, the next 12 months’ sales will be mostly 2028’s, which analysts put at more than twice 2027’s. On that basis, $37 isn’t a stretch multiple.
The Financing Decides Riot’s Target
The risk sits elsewhere. The same AI lab leases 1,101 of Riot’s 1,151 contracted megawatts. And if project debt isn’t available on comparable terms, Riot pays the tenant back through rent credits at an implied 12% interest rate.
B. Riley may well be right about where Riot ends up. But with losses widening and the project debt unsigned, I’d anchor on the Street’s $32 for now and treat $37 as the payoff for a financing that hasn’t happened yet.
The first test is the Rockdale facility: up to $573 million, $20.8 million drawn at Sept. 30, due Dec. 31. A takeout at investment-grade pricing would make $37 look more reasonable.
So What Is Riot Platforms Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
