Key Takeaways
- IREN stock is down 72% from its peak a year ago, and Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target to $47 from $99 on Nov. 6 while keeping an Overweight rating.
- IREN moved its target for more than $4 billion of annualized revenue to January, and possibly February, after Microsoft asked for a design change and suppliers ran late.
- Analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple to $2.8 billion in fiscal 2027, but their loss estimate for that year has widened to $3.42 a share from $0.94 three months ago.
- Cantor’s $47 works out to 6.6x forward sales, above IREN’s 3-year average of 5.2x. With losses widening and $6 billion of the build still to be funded, it looks more like a two-year target than a one-year one.
IREN (IREN) has lost 72% since its peak a year ago, and Cantor Fitzgerald still sees it more than doubling.
On Nov. 6, Cantor analyst Brett Knoblauch cut his price target to $47 from $99 and kept an Overweight rating. That’s 117% above the Nov. 6 close of $21.64, even after the stock jumped 20.02% that day on its first-quarter report.
Microsoft asked for a change, and the date moved
On Nov. 4, The Information reported, citing unnamed sources, that Microsoft (MSFT) pushed back AI spending in the September quarter because of delays at IREN’s Childress, Texas site.
IREN’s first-quarter report the next day confirmed the slip. “The more than $4 billion of contracted ARR is funded and now targeted for January, after a customer-requested design change and supplier timing moved it from year-end; it may extend to the end of February,” co-CEO Daniel Roberts said in the release. On the call, he named Microsoft as the customer that asked for the change.
Cantor trimmed, but stayed bullish
Cantor cut its calendar 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimates and the multiple it puts on them.
TIKR tracks 20 analysts on IREN. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on IREN, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See IREN’s Analyst Ratings
Does $47 add up?
The Street was more hopeful going into the report. Its average target was about $75 before the report, up from $63 a year earlier:
Cantor’s $47 sits 38% below that average, and Cantor wasn’t alone. The same day, Goldman Sachs cut its target to $30 from $50 and kept a Neutral rating, while BTIG lowered its target to $65 from $80.
Analysts expect revenue to nearly quadruple to $2.8 billion in fiscal 2027 (the year to June 2027) and reach $7.4 billion in fiscal 2028:
But CFO Anthony Lewis said IREN doesn’t expect material revenue from its new Horizon and Mackenzie capacity in the December quarter. That leaves the fiscal 2027 revenue estimate at risk. The consensus loss for that year has already widened to $3.42 a share from $0.94 three months ago (from just four analysts).
IREN traded at 3.1x forward sales at the Nov. 2 close, below its 3-year average of 5.2x and far from the 17x it hit a year ago:
Cantor’s $47 works out to 6.6x the sales analysts expect over the next twelve months, above that 3-year average.
The funding comes first
IREN plans $15 billion more capex for the rest of fiscal 2027, with $9 billion of cash and committed funding against it. Roberts said “capital markets have become more selective in the last few weeks,” and IREN’s share count rose nearly 48% in fiscal 2026.
Cantor has a point: the cloud business is growing fast. But until IREN shows it can fund the other $6 billion without issuing a lot more stock, $47 looks more like a two-year target than a one-year one.
If Microsoft signs off on Horizons 2 to 4 in January and IREN closes a loan against its data centers, that timeline gets shorter.
So what is IREN stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
