Key Takeaways
- Constellation Energy is up 13% in the past week after a third-quarter beat and its second guidance raise this year.
- After Vistra’s record quarter, Constellation’s report showed customers are still signing deals despite the midterm scare.
- Its CEO says nearly half of Constellation’s clean output will be contracted for decades by 2032, which supports analysts’ estimates through 2028.
- The stock still trades below its usual forward P/E, which makes it a buy for patient investors.
Constellation Energy (CEG) is up 13% in the past week. Its third-quarter report showed customers are still signing long-term deals, despite the midterm scare that sank AI power stocks.
Vistra (VST), up 12% over the week, got the rebound going with a record third quarter and a raised outlook on Nov. 6.
Customers are still signing
Constellation beat on both lines before the open on Nov. 9:
- Adjusted EPS: $5.06, beating the $3.89 consensus
- Revenue: $9.55 billion, against $9.35 billion expected
- 2026 guidance: $12.50 to $12.80, up from $11.50 to $12.50 and above the $12.22 consensus
That’s the second time this year Constellation has raised its midpoint. It has signed about 8,500 MW of long-term deals so far this year. CEO Joe Dominguez said the new megawatts from its Amazon and Google deals come “with no costs being borne by existing customers.”
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“A platform heretofore unseen”
Back in August, long-term deals covered about 30% of Constellation’s clean baseload output. On the call, Dominguez said long-term deals will support about 45% of its clean baseload fleet by 2032. That leaves nearly half of its clean output hedged “for a couple of decades.”
“This is a platform heretofore unseen where so much EPS growth and cash flow is divorced from the day-to-day movement in forwards through long-term contracts and the PTC price floor,” he said.
Management says each contracted gigawatt is worth $0.40 to $1.00 of base EPS. Analysts expect normalized EPS to climb from $9.39 in 2025 to $16.81 in 2028:
Vistra has more to prove, since its Texas business sits under a governor-elect who wants new data center projects halted. Constellation’s Calpine gas plants give it some Texas exposure too, but its Google and Amazon deals are in PJM.
Still cheaper than its usual multiple
Policy is still the risk. PJM reports its backstop procurement results by year-end, and FERC is expected to rule on co-locating data centers at power plants in the first half of 2027.
At about 23x forward earnings, Constellation trades below its three-year average of 26x and far below its 38x peak in October 2025:
The $338 consensus price target sits about 23% above the last close.
Bottom line: those 15- and 20-year deals won’t change with the election, and investors can still buy that growth below the stock’s usual multiple. For patient investors, that’s a buy. Fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance, due early next year, are the next test, and new signings are the number to watch.
So what is Constellation Energy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
