Key Takeaways
- Coinbase shares fell 10.6% Friday to $144 after a record $6.3 billion theft at Binance hit crypto stocks, leaving them near the 52-week low of $137.
- Q3 net income of $719 million came mostly from about $715 million of gains on crypto held for investment, while revenue fell 35% to $1.22 billion.
- Subscription and services revenue reached 49% of net revenue, and prediction markets passed $200 million in annualized revenue.
- Coinbase cut its 2026 expense outlook, and the February 11 report will show whether diversification can hold profits up if trading stays weak.
Coinbase Global (COIN) reported a $719 million third-quarter profit. Then investors checked where it came from.
About $715 million came from mark-to-market gains on crypto the company holds for investment. Adjusted net income was just $78 million.
The timing was rough, too. A record $6.3 billion heist at Binance hit crypto stocks the next day, and Coinbase fell 10.6% to $144 on Friday, close to its 52-week low of $137.
That theft equals about a sixth of Coinbase’s own $38 billion market value. Exchanges are now calling for faster moves to bolster their defenses, and the whole sector is trading on trust again.
A profit built on marks
Revenue fell 35% from a year ago to $1.22 billion. The pieces:
- Transaction revenue dropped 44% to $590 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 60% from the second quarter to $333 million.
- Adjusted expenses came in below the company’s own outlook.
Revenue held roughly flat from Q2 even as total crypto market trading volume fell 10%, which is a quiet win. Coinbase also gained trading volume market share for a fourth straight quarter, reaching 10.7%.
Still, the top line is a long way from where it was…
Quarterly revenue peaked at $2.27 billion in Q4 2024. It’s now roughly half that.
The new engines are still small
Coinbase’s earnings deck sums up management’s view in four words: “The business is healthy.” The diversification numbers back part of that.
Subscription and services revenue rose 3% from Q2 to $570 million, or 49% of net revenue. Stablecoin revenue reached $307 million as average USDC held in Coinbase products hit a record $22 billion, up 49%. Prediction markets passed $200 million in annualized revenue, and together with derivatives they make up about a quarter of transaction revenue.
New partnerships with Ripple and Citi push stablecoins deeper into payments. But stablecoin income tracks short-term interest rates, so rate cuts would pinch it.
So how reliable are GAAP earnings here?
Coinbase lost $394 million in Q1 and earned $719 million in Q3, and crypto prices drove much of that swing.
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on Coinbase. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coinbase, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coinbase’s Analyst Ratings
The guide points to a quiet Q4
Coinbase guided fourth-quarter subscription and services revenue to $550 million to $630 million, roughly flat. Transaction revenue was only about $165 million through October 25, and management warned against extrapolating that number.
Costs are coming down. Coinbase cut its 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $4.15 billion to $4.30 billion from $4.25 billion to $4.60 billion after shrinking the company by about 14% in May.
Shares trade at 73.6x forward earnings, and the Street’s EPS estimates explain why.
Consensus expects EPS to shrink about 19% a year over the next two years. Even so, the Street’s $209 average target implies 46% upside.
My take: The diversification is real, and the cost cuts protect the downside. However, a quarter that leaned on crypto marks, a soft start to Q4 and the Binance shock leave me cautious. I’d wait for trading volumes to recover before buying, even this close to the lows.
The next checkpoint is the February 11 report. It will show whether prediction markets, derivatives and stablecoins can hold profits up if trading stays weak.
So what is Coinbase Global stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
