Key Takeaways
- Coinbase shares fell 4% on Monday, Nov. 2, after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to Underweight and slashed its price target 53% to $120.
- Coinbase’s third-quarter revenue fell 35% from a year earlier, and analysts’ 2027 earnings estimate has dropped 44% since June.
- Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell 55% last quarter, so the slump reaches beyond Coinbase.
- The Binance hack may help Coinbase and Bullish over time, but Coinbase’s earnings need trading to recover first.
Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 4% on Monday, Nov. 2, after Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys cut the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight and slashed his price target to $120 from $258.
“Confidence in the earnings recovery has deteriorated,” Cyprys wrote.
That’s a tough read for anyone hoping the record $6.3 billion Binance hack sends traders to Coinbase, a case that would help Bullish (BLSH) too. Coinbase earns most when its customers trade, and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reported the same crypto slump on Oct. 27.
The trading slump hasn’t let up
The downgrade extends Friday’s 11% slide after Coinbase’s third-quarter report, in which revenue fell 35% from a year earlier to $1.22 billion. Transaction revenue fell 44% to $590 million.
Morgan Stanley says October’s pace points to about $607 million of fourth-quarter transaction revenue, roughly half what it expected before.
Analysts now expect a normalized loss for 2026 and $2.66 of EPS in 2027, down from $4.79 at the end of June:
If Morgan Stanley is right, those estimates have further to fall.
Robinhood felt it too
Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million in its third quarter, as its crypto trading volume dropped 38%.
But Robinhood had other trades to lean on. Options revenue rose 31%, and event contracts brought in $173 million, more than six times a year earlier, lifting total revenue 12% to a record $1.42 billion.
TIKR tracks 38 analysts on Coinbase. How many say “Buy”?
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Volumes have to come back first
BTIG and H.C. Wainwright think Coinbase could come out of the hack a winner over time.
Bullish reports on Nov. 18, with its call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Its third quarter predates the hack, so what management says about trading since will matter more.
The rest of the Street is more patient. The consensus price target is $205, down from $384 a year ago but still about 43% above Friday’s close:
Morgan Stanley has the better argument. Coinbase gained share for a fourth straight quarter, reaching 10.7% of crypto trading volume in the third quarter. But that does little for earnings while customers trade less.
Of course, crypto trading can turn quickly. Coinbase’s fourth-quarter report, due early next year, will show whether it has.
So what is Coinbase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
