Key Takeaways
- CleanSpark fell 21% in the week to Nov. 4, closing at a new 52-week low, mostly after Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race.
- Bernstein cut its target to $11 from $24. Cipher Digital and IREN fell on the same news, and Riot Platforms signed a Texas lease.
- CleanSpark’s upside was in Texas, and a signed lease there is what would put value back on its unleased campuses.
CleanSpark (CLSK) is down 21% in the week to Nov. 4, closing at a new 52-week low of $6.80, after Texas elected a governor who has promised a moratorium on new data centers. Cipher Digital (CIFR) and IREN (IREN), which have Texas plans of their own, fell too, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) signed a Texas lease.
Texas voted, and the targets fell
After markets closed on Tuesday, Nov. 3, Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Gov. Greg Abbott, who had paused data center permits in September.
On Nov. 4, Keefe Bruyette downgraded CleanSpark to Market Perform with a $9.50 target. Bernstein cut its target to $11 from $24 but kept Outperform, and senior analyst Gautam Chhugani expects no relief: “We would expect the data center pause to continue and any data center potential legislation to remain in gridlock.”
The value was in Texas
CleanSpark has one signed lease, at Sandersville, Georgia: about $6.6 billion over 20 years from a Meta Platforms unit. In July, the same tenant also signed an exclusivity deal covering up to 885 MW in Texas. With no Texas lease signed, revenue estimates rest on mining and Georgia. They peak at $769 million in fiscal 2028, the year Sandersville’s first hall is due:
Hinojosa’s win shouldn’t move those estimates, but it puts the value beyond them in doubt. B. Riley’s July model put about $10.9 billion on the two unleased Texas campuses, a multiple of what the whole company now trades for.
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Bernstein likes the miners with power in hand
Bernstein also cut Cipher’s target to $15 from $23, IREN’s to $55 from $100 and Riot’s to $18 from $35. Cipher is down 27% in the week to Nov. 4, and IREN is down 25%. IREN reports after the close on Nov. 5: will it say the election slows its Sweetwater plans?
Chhugani said the approved, gigawatt-scale power that IREN, Riot and Cipher each hold “may be considered scarce and valuable” if tougher rules keep others off the grid. Riot backed that up on Nov. 4 with a roughly $28 billion, 15-year lease of its whole Corsicana campus to a frontier AI lab.
CleanSpark wasn’t one of the miners Bernstein named. Its whole Texas portfolio tops out at 885 MW, short of a gigawatt, and none of it is leased.
Cheap, but I’d wait on Texas
CleanSpark traded at about 3.3x forward sales before the Nov. 4 drop, just under its 3.5x five-year average, and it’s lower now:
Bernstein’s $11 is 62% above the Nov. 4 close of $6.80.
Bernstein’s own analyst expects the Texas pause to last, and a signed Texas lease is what would put value back on CleanSpark’s unleased campuses. ERCOT’s data center audit, which Abbott’s pause hinges on, is expected in mid-December, and Hinojosa takes office on Jan. 19, 2027.
So what is CleanSpark stock actually worth?
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