Key Takeaways
- Intel shares fell 39% in the past week after a fourth-quarter revenue outlook well below expectations.
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought $9.7 million of stock on Nov. 2.
- AMD is winning server sales Intel can’t supply, and an SK hynix deal for Intel’s Ohio fab isn’t signed.
- The stock still isn’t cheap, and the January report is the next test.
Intel (INTC) stock is down 39% in the week through Nov. 4 on a weak fourth-quarter outlook. On Nov. 2, CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought 150,000 shares for $9.7 million, a regulatory filing shows.
But the outlook hands Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) an opening in servers, and a possible memory deal with SK hynix (SKHY) for Intel’s Ohio fab isn’t signed.
A strong quarter, then a guide $1-2 billion short
Third-quarter revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, beating Intel’s guidance. But it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15-$16.0 billion, against roughly $17.1 billion expected. It blamed a PC slowdown lasting at least through the first half of 2027, short supplies of substrates and an explosion that shut its Israel fab for about two weeks.
Wall Street still sees normalized EPS climbing from $0.42 in 2025 to $2.98 in 2028:
With $0.25 of non-GAAP EPS guided for the fourth quarter, 2027’s $1.81 looks likely to come down.
AMD is taking the orders
AMD’s data center revenue rose 97% in its third quarter on record server CPU sales, and Morgan Stanley now sees its server CPU revenue growing 100% in 2027. Its stock fell 15.5% in the past week with the sector, but AMD is winning the sales Intel can’t fill. Tan himself said Intel’s “immediate priority is to unlock additional supply to meet extraordinary demand for our Xeon family.”
The CEO is buying
Tan paid about $64.73 a share, roughly two-thirds of the $95 Intel got for new stock in August, when he also bought about $10 million of shares at that price.
The Seoul Economic Daily reported on Nov. 3 that SK hynix is weighing making DRAM at the Ohio fab, though an SK hynix official told the paper there was nothing specific the company could confirm. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM output is effectively sold out through 2029, so it has the demand Ohio lacks. Nothing is signed, and its shares fell 13% in the past week.
TIKR tracks 49 analysts on Intel. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Intel, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Intel’s Analyst Ratings
Still not cheap for what it has to fix
Intel traded at 43x forward earnings on Nov. 2, below its five-year average of 50x but about four times its 11x low of July 2022:
And management expects heavy investment in 2027, with free cash flow likely to turn negative again.
Tan’s purchase deserves to be taken seriously. But until Intel ships more chips, AMD gets the orders. The January report will show whether supply is coming back and whether non-GAAP gross margin holds at 38% or better.
So what is Intel stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
