Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet Group fell 12% in a week on a bearish Mizuho call and a record Binance hack, and Coinbase fell with it.
- Circle froze more than $800 million of USDC tied to the hack, a regulated stablecoin doing its job.
- USDC balances and interest rates drive almost all of Circle’s revenue, and they matter far more than the hack.
- The Nov. 4 report should show whether the drop is a chance to buy.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down 12% in the past week, and more than half of that came after the biggest crypto theft on record. Coinbase (COIN) is down 10% alongside it.
Binance got hacked, and Circle hit the freeze button
On Thursday evening, Oct. 29, Binance said a potential security issue had affected about $6.3 billion. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire posted on X that night:
“In coordination with law enforcement, we have frozen more than 800M USDC associated with the incident and will continue supporting the investigation.”
That’s exactly what a regulated stablecoin should do.
Coinbase has even more riding on USDC: Circle paid it about $1.4 billion of its $2.6 billion of reserve income in 2025. Will a record hack push traders toward regulated platforms like Coinbase, or away from crypto entirely?
Mizuho isn’t backing off
On Monday, Oct. 26, Mizuho kept its Underperform rating, cut its target to $43 from $45, and warned of a “marked risk” from AI personal-assistant engines steering users out of USDC.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Circle Internet Group. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Circle Internet Group, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Circle Internet Group’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 4 is the real test
Reserve income was $668 million of Circle’s $701 million of Q2 revenue. Average USDC circulation rose 25% from a year earlier, but reserve income rose only 5% as the reserve return rate slipped to 3.5%. USDC has since slipped to about $73 billion by Oct. 8.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to roughly halve this year, then recover:
Even 2028’s $1.91 trails 2025’s $2.35, and analysts would likely cut their estimates again if USDC is still stuck on Nov. 4.
The forward P/E was 56x on Oct. 30, below its one-year average of 73x:
Friday’s drop took it lower still, and the Street’s $107 average target is about 47% above Friday’s close.
The way I see it, the freeze helps USDC’s case, and Friday’s selloff was crypto fear more than a hit to Circle’s business. Still, I’d wait for Nov. 4.
If USDC is growing again and the reserve return holds, this drop is a chance to buy. If rates fall faster than balances grow, the stock could get cheaper still.
So what is Circle Internet Group stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
