Key Takeaways
- Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest more than doubled its Rocket Lab stake in the third quarter, and seven other funds bought SpaceX or Honeywell Aerospace, according to their latest 13Fs.
- Rocket Lab is 59% below its May high after the first launch of Neutron, its medium-lift rocket, slipped into 2027.
- Analysts’ average target implies 51% upside, but it has fallen from $117 in July, and their 2027 earnings estimate is down to 3 cents a share from 16 cents a year ago.
- Rocket Lab isn’t a buy until Neutron has a launch date, which has to wait for its first-stage tank to finish qualifying, expected in the first quarter.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest more than doubled its stake in Rocket Lab (RKLB) in the third quarter, according to its 13F for the quarter ended Sept. 30, filed Nov. 13. And she had company in aerospace: ARK and five other funds added SpaceX (SPCX), while Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group and one more fund bought Honeywell Aerospace (HONA).
Neutron is late again
Rocket Lab is 59% below the high it hit in late May, and Neutron is the problem. On Oct. 14, the company pushed Neutron’s first launch into 2027 after inspections found voids in a first-stage tank dome. That was the fourth time the target has moved since mid-2025. The Nov. 9 call still gave no date, and Rocket Lab expects the tank to finish qualifying in the first quarter, which has to happen before it sets one. That matters, since management ties positive adjusted EBITDA to the quarter after Neutron’s first successful flight.
At Sept. 30, ARK held 3.56 million Rocket Lab shares worth $248 million, up 118% from June 30. That’s 1.4% of its 13F stocks and its No. 24 position: a real bet, but hardly a big one. And the stock is 12% below its Sept. 30 price, even after a record third quarter.
TIKR tracks 21 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say “Buy”?
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Most of the money went to SpaceX
Wood’s bigger aerospace bet was SpaceX, ARK’s No. 2 position at 5.9% of its 13F stocks. Here’s what all eight funds held in these stocks at Sept. 30:
| Fund | Stock | Q3 move | Share of its 13F stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest | Rocket Lab | Stake up 118% | 1.4% |
| Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest | SpaceX | Stake up 51% | 5.9% |
| Contrarius | SpaceX | Stake up 63% | 10.3% |
| Hyperion Asset Management | SpaceX | Stake up 53% | 7.4% |
| WT Asset Management | SpaceX | Stake up 38% | 2.6% |
| Marsico Capital Management | SpaceX | New | 2.2% |
| Yarbrough Capital | SpaceX | New | 1.1% |
| Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group | Honeywell Aerospace | New | 3.5% |
| Cambiar Investors | Honeywell Aerospace | Stake up 62% | 1.3% |
SpaceX is 38% below its high, yet analysts’ average target has more than doubled since it began trading in June:
At $256, that target is 84% above the last close. Analysts have raised their 2027 revenue estimates 146% since the end of June. The catch is the bill: SpaceX guides $35 billion to $40 billion of capex for the fourth quarter alone.
Honeywell Aerospace’s targets have moved the opposite way. The stock sank 11% after a third-quarter beat as supply constraints persisted, and analysts’ average target has fallen from $300 in late June to $193:
Still, Honeywell Aerospace is the only one of the three above its Sept. 30 price. It’s up 6% since then and trades at about 20x forward earnings.
Rocket Lab’s targets are following the stock down
Analysts’ average target for Rocket Lab is $93, 51% above the last close, across 21 analysts. But it has come down a long way since July:
The target peaked at $117 in mid-July and was about $102 the week before the report. After the report, Piper Sandler cut its target to $58 from $83, now the Street’s lowest. Over the year to late October, analysts raised their 2027 revenue estimate 11%. But they now expect just 3 cents a share of 2027 earnings, down from 16 cents a year ago.
So the stock trades on sales. At the end of September, its forward price/sales was 36x, against a quarter-end average of 23x since 2021. It’s lower after the slide but still above that average.
Shareholders are paying for the build too. Since March 2025, Rocket Lab has sold about $4.6 billion of stock to fund Neutron and its roughly $8 billion Iridium deal. Its third-quarter share count of 652 million came in above the 641 million it guided to.
Not yet
Rocket Lab has real strengths. Electron, its small rocket, earned a 40.8% launch gross margin in 2025, and backlog reached $3.57 billion after the third quarter. But only about a third of that backlog is due to turn into revenue in the next 12 months, and nothing since the May high has fixed what sank the stock. I wouldn’t call a 51% gap to a falling target a bargain, and I’d wait for Neutron’s launch date before following Wood in.
That date could come quickly once the tank qualifies, and Rocket Lab’s fourth-quarter report early next year is the next chance to hear it. ARK’s next 13F, due in mid-February, will show whether Wood kept buying.
So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
