Key Takeaways
- Broadcom fell 15.5% in the week to Nov. 5 as Intel’s weak outlook and fears of tighter AI rules hit chip stocks, Nvidia and AMD included.
- Broadcom put out no news, and analysts still expect its normalized EPS to more than quadruple by fiscal 2028.
- The bigger risk is Broadcom’s own: it backstops up to about $72 billion of financing for AI racks leased to Anthropic.
- The stock trades well below its usual forward P/E, and its December report is the next test.
Broadcom (AVGO) fell 15.5% in the week to Nov. 5 with no news of its own. Intel (INTC) started a chip rout with a weak outlook, and fears of tighter AI rules after the midterms deepened it, dragging down Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) too.
Intel lit the fuse
Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion after the Oct. 29 close, short of the roughly $17 billion analysts expected. Broadcom lost 5.5% on Oct. 30, while Intel fell 28.6% and went on to lose 43.2% in the week to Nov. 5.
Democrats then won both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3. Chip stocks slid on Nov. 4, then plunged on Nov. 5 on worries about slower data center building, with Broadcom down 10.4% that day.
Nvidia fell 15.0% in the week, about as much as Broadcom. AMD lost 28.6%, even though its forecast after the Nov. 3 close called for about $17 billion of fourth-quarter revenue, above the roughly $16.2 billion analysts expected.
Nothing changed at Broadcom
In its fiscal third quarter, revenue rose 86% to $29.6 billion, and AI chip revenue jumped 221% to $16.7 billion. Committed contract value hit $179.2 billion at Aug. 2, and management is aiming for about $115 billion of AI revenue in fiscal 2027.
Power was already the bottleneck: CEO Hock Tan called land, power and the building shell “more than a big concern” on the third-quarter call. Tighter rules could make that worse, but the orders are already on the books.
Analysts expect normalized EPS of $11.67 for the fiscal year that ended Nov. 1, up about 70% from $6.82 in fiscal 2025, and $30.37 by fiscal 2028:
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The backstops matter more than Washington
Broadcom backs a $63 billion vehicle that buys its AI racks and leases them to Anthropic. If Anthropic defaults and the racks sell for less than 72.5% of what’s still owed on the lease, Broadcom covers the difference, up to about $43 billion at peak. A backstop on an earlier deal adds up to about $29 billion.
That’s about $72 billion tied to the customer Tan expects to be Broadcom’s largest custom-chip buyer in 2027, just as Anthropic heads into an IPO reportedly targeted for mid-November. Broadcom calls the odds of a payout low.
Load up, in stages
Broadcom is cheap by its own standards. It traded at under 19x forward earnings on Nov. 2, well below its five-year average of 24x:
The Nov. 5 drop took it lower still.
At this multiple, with the orders intact, buying in stages makes more sense than buying all at once. The December report needs $21.7 billion of AI revenue, gross margin near 73% and the $115 billion fiscal 2027 target repeated, ideally with no new backstop.
So what is Broadcom stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
