Key Takeaways
- Boeing stock is down 10% in the past month, mostly after its third-quarter call moved its $10 billion free cash flow target to 2029.
- Boeing won’t have the 737 steady at 47 a month until next year.
- Analysts trimmed their price targets after the call, but most kept their Buy ratings.
- For investors who can wait, the stock looks like a buy here, and January’s 2027 delivery plan is the next test.
Boeing (BA) stock is down 10% in the past month, nearly all of it on Oct. 27, the day of its third-quarter report.
Boeing has plenty of demand: its backlog hit a record $745 billion. The worry is how long it’ll take to turn those orders into cash.
The call did the damage
Revenue rose 4% to $24.2 billion, but the core loss of $0.34 a share was wider than analysts expected.
The bigger blow came on the call. Wings are still slowing the 737, and CEO Kelly Ortberg said “I’m expecting it’ll take us into next year to get fully stable at this rate,” meaning 47 a month. Boeing will deliver fewer than 500 737s this year.
The cash shows up a year later
Management’s new free cash flow plan starts at about $2 billion this year, then $3 billion in 2027, $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029. Before the call, Wall Street expected about $5.5 billion for 2027 and $9.8 billion for 2028.
Analysts have since come most of the way down to management’s numbers:
Wall Street trimmed its targets and kept its Buys
At least 11 firms cut their targets after the call. BofA went from $270 to $235 and kept its Buy rating, and even that lower target sits 36% above the Nov. 3 close. Not everyone stayed bullish: Deutsche Bank cut its target to $157 and kept a Hold.
TIKR tracks 28 analysts on Boeing. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Boeing, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Boeing’s Analyst Ratings
Is Boeing a buy here?
Boeing trades at 1.3x forward sales, down from a five-year high of 2.03x reached earlier this year:
At the Nov. 3 close, its $137.3 billion market value is also about 14x the free cash flow Boeing targets for 2029. The risk is the balance sheet: $45.9 billion of debt at Sept. 30 against $20.7 billion of cash and investments, plus preferred stock that turns into up to 40.22 million more shares in October 2027.
Still, the stock looks like a buy for investors who can wait. The orders are there, and analysts have already cut their numbers for the slower ramp.
Next up are fourth-quarter results in late January, with Boeing’s 2027 delivery plan. If that plan shows 737 output slipping again, the $3 billion cash target for 2027 slips with it.
So what is Boeing stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Boeing could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
