Key Takeaways:
- Bilibili is executing a comprehensive strategy focused on high-quality content creation while expanding monetization across its engaged Gen Z+ user base in China’s evolving video landscape.
- BILI stock could reasonably reach $37/share by the end of 2027, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 49% from today’s price of $25/share, with an annualized return of 18.4% over the next 2.4 years.
Bilibili (BILI) is establishing new benchmarks in China’s video platform industry through strategic focus on premium content quality and diversified monetization.
The company combines its core ACG (Animation, Comics, Games) community strength with expanding lifestyle and knowledge content to capture the maturing preferences of Gen Z+ users.
The video platform leader serves 368 million monthly active users through its comprehensive content ecosystem spanning gaming, knowledge, lifestyle, and entertainment. This spans from core ACG content through Bilibili’s signature offerings to emerging categories like AI education and consumer reviews that resonate with its evolving user base.
BILI stock benefits from exceptional momentum, delivering $970 million in Q1 revenue, representing 24% year-over-year growth and achieving a positive adjusted net profit of $50 million.
Bilibili demonstrates clear execution across all segments with a record 36.3% gross margins and users spending an average of 108 minutes daily on the platform.
Bilibili’s strategic transformation under CEO Rui Chen focuses on promoting high-quality content that provides long-term fulfillment while building sustainable monetization channels across advertising, gaming, and value-added services for its increasingly affluent user base.
With initiatives including San Mou gaming success driving 76% gaming revenue growth, AI-enhanced advertising infrastructure improving conversion rates, and premium membership reaching 23.5 million users, Bilibili continues building comprehensive platform leadership.
With Q1 results showing sustained positive profitability and margin expansion while maintaining strong user growth, BILI stock is positioned for continued expansion as premium content strategy drives long-term value creation.
Here’s why BILI stock could deliver solid returns through 2027 as it captures China’s premium video content market and scales monetization opportunities.
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What the Model Says for BILI Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for BILI stock using valuation assumptions based on its community strength and expanding monetization opportunity across China’s video platform market.
Analysts see significant opportunity ahead for Bilibili given its premium content positioning, successful transition to profitability, and systematic approach to building sustainable revenue streams while maintaining industry-leading user engagement metrics.
Bilibili’s diversified monetization strategy provides multiple growth vectors while its content quality focus validates that strong execution can drive market differentiation and user value creation in China’s competitive video platform landscape.
Based on estimates of 10.5% annual revenue growth, 6.4% operating margins, and a normalized P/E valuation multiple of 33x, the model projects BILI stock could rise from $25/share to $37/share.
That would be a 49% total return, or an 18.4% annualized return over the next 2.4 years.
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BILI stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.5%
Bilibili delivered a strong Q1 performance with revenue rising 24% year-over-year, while achieving record gross margins and sustained profitability across key business segments.
Growth was driven by gaming business expansion with San Mou’s continued success, advertising revenue increases supported by AI infrastructure improvements, and value-added services benefiting from premium membership growth and creator monetization programs.
BILI expects momentum from a high-quality content strategy, continued gaming portfolio development, and enhanced advertising efficiency through AI-powered targeting and content creation tools.
We used a 10.5% forecast reflecting Bilibili’s proven ability while building sustainable monetization channels and maintaining strong community engagement in China’s evolving video landscape.
2. Operating Margins: 6.4%
Bilibili achieved a positive adjusted operating margin of 5% in Q1, demonstrating a successful transition to profitability while maintaining strategic investments in content creation and technology development.
A focus on operational efficiency through fixed cost leverage and strategic investment supports margin expansion while funding content acquisition, creator support programs, and AI infrastructure development initiatives.
Management targets a long-term operating margin of 15-20% while investing in strategic growth areas, reflecting disciplined capital allocation balancing profitability with market leadership and sustainable competitive positioning.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 33x
BILI stock trades at growth multiples reflecting the company’s unique market position and expanding addressable market opportunity across China’s video content and gaming segments.
We maintain growth-oriented valuation levels given Bilibili’s community advantages, proven execution in content monetization, and systematic approach to building sustainable competitive advantages through quality content curation and user engagement.
Long-term competitive advantages from premium content positioning, comprehensive platform integration, and operational scale should support reasonable valuations as execution demonstrates sustained profitability growth and market leadership.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for Bilibili stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on execution and China video market expansion success: (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Slower monetization growth and competitive pressure → 11% annual returns
- Mid Case: Successful content strategy and margin expansion → 18% annual returns
- High Case: Strong growth across all segments and market leadership → 24% annual returns
Even in the conservative case, BILI stock offers attractive returns supported by the company’s unique content positioning and proven ability to monetize its highly engaged user community.
The upside scenario for BILI stock could deliver exceptional performance if Bilibili successfully captures expanded monetization opportunities and maintains market leadership through continued content innovation and community development.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
