Key Takeaways
- MPLX expects to raise its distribution 12.5% in both 2026 and 2027, while Realty Income has raised its dividend for over 31 consecutive years.
- MPLX yields 7.65% at its current rate against Realty Income’s 6.1%, and its dividend grew 8.2% a year from 2020 to 2025, against 2.9% for Realty Income.
- Realty Income paid out 75% of its AFFO in 2025, and MPLX’s distributable cash flow covered its distribution 1.4x.
- Analysts expect MPLX’s coverage to slip to 1.29x in 2026 as its raises outpace its cash flow, close to the 1.3x management targets.
Anyone hunting for a dividend yield of 6% or more will run into Realty Income (O) and MPLX (MPLX) sooner or later.
Both had news for income investors with their second-quarter results in August. Realty Income raised its 2026 AFFO guidance to $4.44 to $4.45 a share, while MPLX said it expects to raise its distribution 12.5% in both 2026 and 2027.
So which is the better high-yield dividend stock?
| Metric | Realty Income (O) | MPLX (MPLX) |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend yield | 6.1% | 7.65% (at the current rate) |
| Yield at the current rate | 6.00% | 7.65% |
| Dividend growth, fiscal 2020 to 2025 | 2.9% a year | 8.2% a year |
| Record (the company’s own words) | 136 increases since its 1994 listing; over 31 consecutive years | 12.5% raises in each of the last 2 years |
| Coverage, fiscal 2025 | AFFO payout ratio: 75% | Distributable cash flow coverage: 1.40x |
| Coverage, fiscal 2026 consensus | AFFO payout ratio: 73% | Distributable cash flow coverage: 1.29x |
| Net debt/EBITDA (LTM) | 5.74x | 4.0x |
Realty Income keeps the checks coming
Realty Income pays its dividend every month. After its 136th increase since its 1994 listing, announced on Sept. 8, that comes to $3.258 a share a year.
The business behind it is still buying. Realty Income raised its 2026 investment guidance to $10.0 billion. It’s also relying less on new stock to pay for those purchases. Public equity funded 18% of its investment volume so far this year, against an average of 47% over the past three years.
AFFO per share grew from $2.88 in 2016 to $4.28 in 2025, faster than the dividend’s climb from $2.39 to $3.22.
That left a well-covered 75% payout ratio in 2025, down from 83% in 2016. Analysts expect 73% in 2026.
The catch is speed. Realty Income guides to same-store rent growth of just 1.1% to 1.3% in 2026, and its dividend grew 2.9% a year from 2020 to 2025. At that rate, $10,000 at its 6.1% yield pays $610 a year now and about $790 in year 10. So, call it a 7.9% yield on your cash in a decade.
MPLX grows faster, with a thinner cushion
Realty Income raises its check a little at a time, while MPLX is raising its check fast. MPLX lifted its quarterly distribution 12.5% in each of the last two years, to $1.0765 a unit, and expects 12.5% raises again in 2026 and 2027. (As an MLP, it pays distributions on units, and holders get a K-1 at tax time.)
That growth comes from natural gas. MPLX’s Natural Gas and NGL Services segment grew adjusted EBITDA 11% to $614 million in the second quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. Distributable cash flow per unit rose from $3.25 in 2016 to $5.68 in 2025, ahead of distributions every year.
Coverage was a comfortable 1.40x in 2025. Analysts expect 1.29x in 2026 because distributions are rising faster than the 3% growth they expect in distributable cash flow per unit. MPLX planned it that way. CFO Carl Hagedorn said, “we continue to target our 1.3x coverage ratio for both ’26 and ’27 and frankly, beyond.” This year’s raise is guided, not declared yet: last year’s came on Oct. 28.
At its 7.65% yield, $10,000 pays $765 a year now. At its 8.2% growth rate from 2020 to 2025, that becomes about $1,549 in year 10, a 15.5% yield on your cash.
MPLX is also spending more. It raised its 2026 growth capital outlook by $500 million to $2.9 billion, and its leverage ratio rose to 3.7x at the end of the second quarter of 2026, from 3.1x a year earlier.
So which dividend wins?
MPLX is the better high-yield dividend stock. It pays the bigger check today, it’s growing that check faster, and it carries less debt. Its net debt is 4.0x EBITDA, against 5.74x for Realty Income, and its EBIT covers interest 4.09x, against 2.35x.
The income math isn’t close. Realty Income’s income never catches up with MPLX’s, at either stock’s 5-year growth rate or its 2025 pace.
This isn’t to say Realty Income’s dividend is in trouble. It’s well-covered at 73% of expected AFFO, it arrives every month, and management will work very hard to keep a record of over 31 consecutive years of raises. It’s just that, for a high-yield stock, I’d rather own the bigger, faster-growing check backed by the stronger balance sheet.
Of course, MPLX’s plan depends on its cash flow keeping pace. The next two reports will show whether coverage holds near 1.3x.
So what is MPLX stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what MPLX could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
