Key Takeaways
- Bernstein has kept its Outperform rating and $45 target on Nike since Oct. 2. The stock is up 19% over the past month but still down 37% this year.
- On Wall Street’s fiscal 2028 earnings estimate, the $45 and $50 bull targets need only about Nike’s five-year average forward P/E.
- That estimate depends on EPS rising about 22% while revenue grows about 1%, and analysts cut this year’s estimate by 25% in 90 days.
- The first quarter hasn’t shown that turn yet, so the Street’s $36.50 average target looks more likely than $45 until the estimates stop falling.
Nike (NKE) still has a bull in its corner. Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating and $45 price target on Nov. 3, the same target it set when it cut from $68 on Oct. 2. At $40.42 on Nov. 4, the stock is up 19% over the past month but still down 37% in 2026.
The bulls have company. On Oct. 22, Barclays raised its target to $45 from $37 with an Overweight rating. Around the same time, BTIG kept a Buy and a $50 target, Bank of America kept its Underperform rating and $24 target, and Piper Sandler kept a Hold at $28.
All five targets depend on what Wall Street expects Nike to earn over the next two fiscal years. So for Bernstein’s $45 to hold, Nike’s latest quarter has to look like the start of that recovery.
Analysts Expect Nike’s Recovery in Fiscal 2028
Nike’s fiscal year ends in May. Management guides fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, before about $0.15 of charges for Pace, its new cost program. That compares with $1.58 in fiscal 2026 once the tariff refund is taken out.
Analysts expect earnings to bottom this year at $1.28 and then climb back to $1.56 in fiscal 2028, about where fiscal 2026 ended:
Even after that recovery, Nike would earn less than half of fiscal 2024’s $3.95.
Revenue does little of the work. Management guides fiscal 2027 revenue down by a high-single-digit percentage, and analysts expect it to barely move in fiscal 2028:
With revenue up about 1%, the 22% jump in EPS from fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2028 has to come from margins. Analysts put Nike’s EBIT margin at 5.7% this year and 7.0% next. Pace targets $2.5 billion of savings through fiscal 2031, but most of that money arrives in fiscal 2029 and 2030.
TIKR Tracks 43 Analysts on Nike. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Nike, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Nike’s Analyst Ratings
The First Quarter Hasn’t Turned Yet
In the quarter to Aug. 31, revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion (5% in constant currency), and EPS slipped to $0.48 from $0.49. Gross margin rose 60 basis points to 42.8%, which is the kind of progress the bull case needs.
The rest of the business went the wrong way. Greater China’s revenue fell 26% in constant currency, and management expects China to get worse for the rest of fiscal 2027. The full-year consensus also implies revenue down about 9% over the last three quarters, and management has warned that last year’s comparisons cut about 400 basis points off second-quarter growth.
So the first quarter fits a down fiscal 2027. The turn that every bull target counts on still hasn’t started.
The Bulls Only Need an Average Multiple
A 12-month target lands about a year from now, when investors will be pricing fiscal 2028 earnings. Divided by that year’s $1.56 consensus, Bernstein’s and Barclays’ $45 works out to 29x. BTIG’s $50 is 32x, Piper Sandler’s $28 is 18x, and Bank of America’s $24 is 15x.
Over the past five years, Nike’s forward P/E has averaged 31x, with a low of 19.5x in June 2024 and a high of 48x in August 2025:
At $40.42, the stock trades at about 31x, right at that average, even though earnings are near their low. At 31x, $45 needs about $1.45 a share of forward earnings, 7% below the fiscal 2028 consensus. Hitting $50 needs $1.61, slightly above it.
The two bearish targets are below any multiple Nike has traded at in five years, based on today’s estimates. I read them as a bet that those estimates are still too high.
Nike’s Estimates Keep Falling
The bear case has history on its side. The fiscal 2027 consensus fell 25% in the 90 days to late October. The fiscal 2028 estimate was $3.71 in early 2025, and it has since fallen by more than half. A target built on an average multiple falls along with the earnings under it.
Bernstein’s $45 holds up if the fiscal 2028 estimate does, and the first quarter doesn’t give me a reason to count on that yet. Until Nike shows its earnings have stopped falling, I’d expect the stock to end up closer to the Street’s average target of $36.50, about 10% below today’s price.
Management plans to lay out a five-year financial outlook at its Nov. 16-17 Investor Day, and second-quarter results are expected around Dec. 17. If the Investor Day targets support a 7% EBIT margin in fiscal 2028, $45 looks a lot more reasonable.
So what is Nike stock actually worth?
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Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
