Key Stats for Astera Labs Stock
- Current Price: $258.70
- Target Price (Mid): ~$740
- Street Target: ~$383
- Potential Total Return: ~187%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
What Happened?
Astera Labs (ALAB) has beaten Wall Street’s revenue estimates in each of its last five reports, and the stock fell the session after each of the last three: 21.41% in February, 0.83% in May, and 11.96% on August 5. It reports again after the close on November 3, following a 10.93% drop on October 30 when renewed doubts about the AI trade hit chip stocks. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports the same evening and, at about 38x forward EBITDA, trades near Astera’s 37x.
Analysts See Growth Flattening After the Fourth Quarter
Third-quarter consensus sits around $551 million in revenue and $1.19 in adjusted EPS, both near the midpoint of management’s guidance. The harder number comes next. Analysts model around $656 million for the fourth quarter, up about 19%, then growth of only about 5% a quarter in the first half of 2027. That shape helps explain why beats have stopped lifting the stock: the reaction hinges on the guide, and estimates already assume the surge fades.
At Citi’s Global TMT Conference on September 9, Co-Founder and CEO Jitendra Mohan said the Scorpio X scale-up switch was shipping to the lead customer, was entering volume production in the third quarter, and was shipping to additional customers. He said Astera expects “to convert many of these to full design wins to ramp in 2027.” He credited years of co-design for the ramp’s speed, plus “certainly some amount of, call it, just old-fashioned luck that everything landed in the right way.” That candor matters for the guide, since qualification timing sits partly with customers. CFO Desmond Lynch said Scorpio X customer engagements had grown from 10 to the high teens, with several expected to become design wins by year-end.
At 37x EBITDA, the Margin Has to Hold
Astera’s forward EV/EBITDA fell from about 119x on June 30 to about 37x on October 30. That is near AMD’s 38x but well above Broadcom’s 15x. Rising forecasts did much of that work: next-12-month EBITDA estimates, which now cover a later period, climbed about 70% while the stock fell 46.44%.
Lynch told Citi that Scorpio margins are “in line with our corporate averages,” even as he expects the overall margin to trend “down towards the 70% range.” That makes the roughly 72% third-quarter gross margin guide a check on whether the switch ramp is coming at healthy pricing. Mohan’s case for the product is output per GPU: a GPU attached to Scorpio X delivers more tokens per second, and “in today’s supply-constrained world, that is gold.”
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on Astera Labs. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Astera Labs, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Astera Labs’ Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $258.70
- Target Price (Mid): ~$740
- Potential Total Return: ~187%
- Annualized IRR: ~29% / year
TIKR’s mid case reaches around $740 by December 31, 2030, about 187% above the October 30 close, or about 29% a year over 4.2 years. That sits far above the Street’s mean target of around $383, because the model assumes growth keeps compounding well past the 2027 slowdown analysts now expect.
The upside is Scorpio X design wins converting across that high-teens list in 2027. The downside is a guide that confirms the plateau, which would leave a stock at about 46x forward normalized earnings little room.
Conclusion
The fourth-quarter revenue guide on November 3 decides whether the streak breaks. A midpoint at or above the roughly $656 million consensus, with gross margin near 72% and new Scorpio X design wins named, would mean the plateau is not arriving yet. A guide near the third quarter’s level would suggest the market read the slowdown first.
So what is Astera Labs stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
