Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile rose 7% on plans for its own reusable rocket, with Firefly Aerospace engines under a deal worth more than $1.3 billion.
- Owning its launches would cut AST’s reliance on SpaceX, which also competes through Starlink.
- The deal adds about $900 million of cash payments, plus new shares, to about $3.2 billion of expected burn before 2029.
- Blacklift won’t fly before late 2028, so the Nov. 9 report matters more.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is up 7% today on plans for Blacklift, a 20-ton reusable rocket for its BlueBird satellites, with Firefly Aerospace (FLY) engines under a deal worth more than $1.3 billion.
That’s a shot at SpaceX (SPCX), whose Falcon 9 carries BlueBirds while Starlink chases the same phone customers.
A rocket of its own, at a price
Blacklift should carry up to five BlueBirds from late 2028. AST will pay Firefly about $800 million upfront for a license to build its engines ($400 million in cash, the rest in 10 million to 14 million shares), plus $500 million over three years for engines and engineering support. CEO Abel Avellan said Blacklift gives AST “regular unconstrained access to orbit.”
More cash out the door
Analysts already expected negative free cash flow through 2028:
That’s about $3.2 billion of burn from July 2026 on, barely covered by AST’s unpledged cash at the end of June. Blacklift adds about $900 million of cash, plus 3% to 5% more Class A shares, before an unpriced airframe and engine factory. So those estimates should get worse, and the Nov. 9 report has to say how AST pays for it.
Firefly cashes in first
Firefly is up 34%: the deal is worth about three times its 2026 revenue guidance of $420 million to $450 million. Paid partly in AST shares, Firefly will own a piece of its customer. Its report next week should show how much of the deal lands in backlog.
SpaceX, up 8%, booked $1.13 billion of launch services revenue in the third quarter, so it won’t miss AST’s business much. The real fight is Starlink’s 13.6 million consumer subscribers.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
Smart, but I’d wait
AST traded at 35x forward sales before today’s jump, well below its five-year average of 60x:
At today’s price it’s about 37x, and that needs consensus revenue to climb from $167.5 million this year to $1.73 billion in 2028, from satellites launched on other companies’ rockets. Owning the rocket makes sense, but I’d wait for Monday’s report to show firm BlueBird launch dates and a way to fund Blacklift, and for a total cost at its Nov. 12 unveiling.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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