Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile closed 62% below its May high on October 9, and Deutsche Bank upgraded it to Buy on October 12 with a $93 target, 82% above that close.
- Deutsche Bank’s case is that AST’s spectrum alone accounts for nearly all of the company’s enterprise value.
- Analysts expect revenue to rise from $70.9 million in 2025 to $1.73 billion in 2028, but their loss estimates for 2026 and 2027 widened over the last 90 days.
- The $93 target implies 80x forward sales, above the stock’s five-year average of 60.3x, which makes the call plausible but stretched.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed at $50.97 on October 9, 62% below its May 28 high. On October 12, Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and kept his $93 price target, 82% above that close.
Not long ago, he was a skeptic.
A launchpad explosion, then SpaceX
Kraft explained his earlier exit himself: “We had downgraded the stock in May after the New Glenn launchpad explosion that introduced a material delay in ASTS’ launch plans, combined with valuation concerns.”
The pressure kept building. On October 2, B. Riley cut AST to Hold and lowered its target from $85 to $65. Then on October 9, SpaceX (SPCX) agreed to buy a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio from Grain Management, and AST hit a new 52-week low.
Deutsche Bank says the spectrum alone covers the price
Kraft calls this an “opportune time” to turn bullish. He points to the drop, to catalysts he thinks the market has overlooked, and to AST’s spectrum, which he estimates accounts for nearly all of the company’s enterprise value. Put differently, he thinks investors are paying close to nothing for the satellite network itself.
Berenberg, which kept its Buy on October 9, adds that the SpaceX deal makes AST a more valuable partner for the carriers SpaceX is taking on.
Does $93 add up?
The rest of the Street is warier: before the upgrade, 4 of 13 analysts rated AST a Buy or Outperform and 7 a Hold. Still, the $78 consensus target rose over the past year even as the stock fell [41%].
The optimism rests on revenue, which analysts expect to grow from $70.9 million in 2025 to $1.73 billion in 2028 (though only 6 analysts go that far out).
Losses are moving the wrong way, though. Over the last 90 days, the consensus loss for 2026 widened from $1.51 a share to $2.28, and for 2027 from $0.65 to $1.19.
On valuation, AST traded at 43.6x forward sales at the October 9 close, below its five-year average of 60.3x.
Deutsche Bank’s $93 works out to 79.6x those same sales. That’s well above the average, though nowhere near the 205.4x peak of October 2025.
The cash matters too. AST guided to $350 million to $425 million of third-quarter capex, and Wall Street still sees $3.2 billion of cash burn before 2029, against over $3.7 billion of pro forma cash at June 30.
Plausible, but stretched
Deutsche Bank’s call is plausible, but it’s a stretch. The revenue ramp is real and the stock is cheaper than its own history, but $93 needs a richer multiple than usual while loss estimates keep widening. I’d want those estimates to stop getting worse before buying the spectrum argument.
The next tests come quickly: the FCC’s October 29 meeting, whose agenda Clear Street called “mixed” for AST, and the launch of BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16. If those go well and loss estimates hold, $93 starts to look a lot easier to reach.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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