Key Takeaways
- AppLovin stock fell 12% in the past week to a new 52-week low, mostly on Friday after weak reports from Reddit and Roblox.
- Roblox’s user decline is a poor guide to AppLovin, whose revenue rose 56% in the first six months of 2026 even as installs through its ads fell 10%.
- Citi still rates AppLovin a Buy with a $500 target, and the Nov. 4 third-quarter report is the next test of that call.
AppLovin (APP) stock is down 12% in the past week, to a new 52-week low, with no news from the company itself.
Most of it came on Friday, when the stock fell 10% to $228.50 after Reddit (RDDT) and Roblox (RBLX) reported weaker user numbers on Thursday evening.
Investors Sold AppLovin With Reddit and Roblox
Reddit fell 29% on Friday, its worst day since going public in 2024. Its fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $1 billion to $1.03 billion missed the $1.05 billion Wall Street expected. CEO Steve Huffman also warned that daily visitors could fall by a low double-digit percentage this quarter if traffic from search engines keeps shrinking. AppLovin’s ads run inside apps that don’t need Google for traffic.
Roblox is off 19% for the week after its daily active users fell 9% from a year earlier, to 138 million. Gaming still makes up most of AppLovin’s revenue, so Roblox’s numbers matter more here. But in the first half of 2026, installs through AppLovin’s ads fell 10% while net revenue per install rose 75%, its second-quarter 10-Q shows. So I’d call Friday guilt by association.
Citi Still Sees AppLovin at $500
UBS cut its target to $414 from $790 on Oct. 28, citing slower growth from consumer advertisers, and RBC cut its to $500 from $575. Citi’s Jason Bazinet had already cut his target to $500 from $600 earlier in October, and he still rates the stock a Buy.
Earnings estimates have held up better. Analysts still expect normalized EPS to more than double from 2025 to 2028:
AppLovin traded at 14x forward earnings at Thursday’s close, near the bottom of its five-year range, and Friday’s drop took it lower still:
Citi’s $500 works out to about 27x the earnings analysts expect over the next year, a bit above the stock’s 25x five-year average.
TIKR Tracks 33 Analysts on AppLovin. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AppLovin, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AppLovin’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 4 Is the Next Test
AppLovin reports third-quarter results on Nov. 4. Its own guide calls for revenue of $2.06 billion to $2.09 billion, up 46% to 48% from a year earlier. On the August call, CEO Adam Foroughi put the second quarter’s slight revenue miss down to timing: the next step-up in model performance “landed just after quarter end,” and he said the third quarter had started strong because of it.
At about 12x forward earnings after Friday, AppLovin stock has room to bounce if revenue lands at the top of that range. Doubling to $500 would take a multiple above the stock’s own average, and the 2027 estimate has slipped 5% since June. I’d expect a rebound to stall nearer the Street’s $465 consensus target.
Of course, a fourth-quarter guide below the roughly $2.25 billion analysts expect would send estimates lower, and make even 12x look less cheap.
So what is AppLovin stock actually worth?
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