Key Takeaways
- Annaly Capital Management director Scott Wede bought 50,000 shares on Nov. 6 at an average of $18.80, or $940,000 in all, through his IRA.
- Annaly’s book value fell 11.4% to $17.86 a share in the third quarter as rates jumped, but its earnings available for distribution of $0.80 a share again covered the $0.75 dividend.
- Analysts have cut their price targets since the end of September, but their earnings estimates for 2026 have edged up.
- The numbers mostly support Wede’s buy at $18.80, though it’s a bet that rates calm down, and book value in the fourth-quarter report is the figure to watch.
An Annaly Capital Management (NLY) director just put $940,000 into a stock that’s down 13% over the past year.
Scott Wede bought 50,000 shares on Friday, Nov. 6, at an average of $18.80 apiece, according to a Form 4 filed Nov. 9. The stock closed at $18.95 on Nov. 9, roughly where he bought it.
Rising rates hit book value
Annaly hit an intraday 52-week high of $24.52 in late January and closed Nov. 9 23% below it, with most of that drop in the last three months. CEO David Finkelstein said the 10-year Treasury yield rose 82 basis points in the third quarter. The sell-off sped up after the Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and Agency mortgage spreads widened with it. Book value per share fell 11.4% in the quarter to $17.86, for an economic return of negative 7.6%.
Annaly’s earnings held up, though. Earnings available for distribution rose a penny to $0.80 a share, enough to cover the $0.75 dividend again. On the third-quarter call, Finkelstein said Annaly expects “to outearn in Q4” and that “we’re comfortable with where the dividend is at today.” He also said book value was up about 2% from Sept. 30 as of the Friday before the call, before counting the dividend accrual.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on Annaly Capital Management. How many say “Buy”?
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He knows this market
Wede joined Annaly’s board in October 2023. From 2004 to 2015, he was Barclays Capital’s global head of securitized products and municipal finance. That’s close to the business Annaly runs: it issued a record $7.4 billion of securitizations in the third quarter alone. The shares sit in his IRA, and the Form 4 shows 50,000 shares held after the buy, so this purchase built his stake from nothing. For an independent director, $940,000 is a real check. Buys like this are easy to miss, which is why it’s worth knowing how to track the stocks insiders are buying.
Do the numbers back him?
Mostly. Analysts expect Annaly to earn $3.13 a share in 2026, up from $2.92 in 2025, and about the same in 2027 and 2028:
That 2026 estimate has edged up over the past three months, despite the rough quarter. Each year’s estimate is also above the $3.00 a year Annaly pays out now.
Price targets went the other way. The consensus target has dropped to $21 from $24 at the end of September, as firms including RBC Capital and Wells Fargo cut theirs after the report:
Even so, the consensus target sits about 12% above the Nov. 9 close, before the dividend. Investors also price a mortgage REIT off its book value. Wede paid about 5% above Annaly’s $17.86 book value at Sept. 30, and less than that if Finkelstein’s mid-October update holds.
A bet on calmer rates
The risk is plain enough. Annaly’s book value moves with rates and mortgage spreads, and Finkelstein said markets were pricing nearly three more Fed hikes through the end of next year. The Fed held rates on Oct. 28, but two officials voted for another hike. Annaly also keeps selling stock: it raised $757 million through its at-the-market program in the third quarter, and its share count is up 15% in a year.
Still, the numbers mostly support his purchase. Wede paid close to book value for earnings that cover the dividend, and the estimates are holding steady. At $18.80, that dividend pays him nearly 16% a year if it holds. Of course, one insider’s buy is just one signal, and Wede doesn’t know where rates go next any better than anyone else. The figure to watch is book value in the fourth-quarter report, due early next year.
So what is Annaly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
