Key Takeaways
- Bill Ackman said on CNBC’s Squawk Pod that if he were at American Express, he’d be concerned about Ramp, a private fintech valued at $60 billion in October.
- Analysts still expect American Express’s normalized EPS to grow at a double-digit pace through 2028, with revenue up 9% to 10% a year.
- The stock trades at 17x forward earnings, right at its 10-year average, so its drop from the high hasn’t priced in a threat.
- Ramp’s revenue is still a small fraction of American Express’s, so the Street’s numbers look reasonable for now, and AmEx’s commercial billings are the figure to watch.
American Express (AXP) just got a warning from Bill Ackman, and it started with a question about bubbles.
On Election Day’s episode of CNBC’s Squawk Pod, the host asked the Pershing Square CEO whether today’s market looks like the roaring ’20s that led to the Great Depression.
Ackman said no, though he sees “a little bit more bubble-like activity” in private markets. Then he named a private company he thinks has earned its valuation:
“I met with the Ramp team. Unbelievably impressive company. If I were at American Express, I would be concerned.”
Ackman said Ramp, the corporate card and spend management startup, is building “basically a financial operating system for every company in the world.”
And it’s growing fast. Ramp raised $1.85 billion at a $60 billion valuation in October, and research firm Sacra estimates its annualized revenue reached $2 billion, up from $1.23 billion at the end of 2025.
TIKR tracks 30 analysts on American Express. How many say “Buy”?
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Wall Street isn’t worried
The analysts’ estimates show no sign of that threat.
They expect AmEx’s normalized EPS to climb from $15.38 in 2025 to $17.82 this year, $20.20 in 2027, and $23.21 in 2028. That’s double-digit growth every year, close to the 15% it grew in 2025:
Analysts are modeling AmEx’s earnings as if nothing has changed, and one comment on a podcast isn’t a reason for them to cut.
Revenue estimates look the same. After 9% growth in both 2024 and 2025, analysts expect $79.4 billion this year and $86.6 billion in 2027, or 9% to 10% growth a year:
The price targets point the same way. Five firms reset theirs in the last week of October:
- J.P. Morgan: Buy, $365 (Oct. 30)
- Citi: Hold, $335, down from $340 (Oct. 27)
- Evercore ISI: Hold, $330, up from $320 (Oct. 26)
- Morgan Stanley: Hold, $380 (Oct. 26)
- BMO Capital: Buy, $380 (Oct. 26)
Every one of those targets is above Tuesday’s close of $325.50, and their $366 average is about 12% higher.
The drop hasn’t made it cheap
AmEx stock is down 12% in 2026 and 16% from its 52-week high, so you might think the market has already marked it down for competition.
But the drop has only brought its valuation back to its usual level. At Tuesday’s close, AmEx traded at 17x forward earnings, right on its 10-year average of 17x:
The $366 average target works out to about 19x the next 12 months’ expected earnings.
So analysts aren’t building in any discount for a threat. If anything, they’d pay a bit above the usual multiple.
Ramp is still small next to AmEx
The way I see it, Wall Street has this one right.
AmEx is expected to bring in $79.4 billion of revenue this year, about 40 times Ramp’s $2 billion run rate. Ramp goes after company spending, and AmEx’s network rests heavily on wealthy consumer cardholders and what they spend.
Even if Ramp keeps winning over finance teams, it would take years to make a dent in revenue that size.
At 17x forward earnings, with earnings expected to grow at a double-digit pace through 2028, AmEx looks fairly priced for what the business analysts expect. I wouldn’t sell it over one podcast comment.
Of course, Sacra counts more than 85,000 business customers at Ramp as of October, up from 50,000 at the start of the year.
If AmEx’s commercial billings start to slow in its reports next year while Ramp keeps up that pace, Ackman’s warning will look a lot more like a forecast.
So what is American Express stock actually worth?
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Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
