Key Takeaways
- Intuitive Machines reports third-quarter results before the open on Nov. 12, and analysts expect revenue to more than quadruple from $210 million in 2025 to $920 million this year.
- The quarter matters most as a check on whether revenue is coming in fast enough to clear that bar, more than as a source of new contract headlines.
- Free cash flow was negative $145.8 million in the first half of 2026, and the $367.4 million of cash at June 30 already included $235 million from stock sales, so the burn has to shrink as sales grow.
- The backlog makes this year’s number look reachable, but 2027’s $1.17 billion estimate still depends on contracts the company hadn’t booked by June 30.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) gave investors a lot of contract news with its second-quarter results: a sixth lunar lander mission for NASA, 18 spacecraft for the Golden Dome missile-defense constellation, and an authorization to proceed on three commercial satellites, a program the company expects to be worth more than $600 million. On Nov. 3, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory added another, picking it to provide the spacecraft platform for its FALCON-RADAR mission.
The stock is still down 35% in 2026. When the company reports third-quarter results before the open on Thursday, Nov. 12, the number I care about most is revenue.
Wall Street Wants a Fourfold Year
Analysts expect revenue to go from $210 million in 2025 to $920 million this year, then to nearly $1.17 billion in 2027:
That ramp includes Lanteris, which Intuitive Machines bought for $800 million in January. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of $900 million to $1 billion of revenue on Aug. 13, so the consensus sits near the low end of that range.
The second quarter was a record, with $206.2 million of revenue, more than four times the $50.3 million of a year earlier. With $186.7 million in the first quarter, the first half came to $392.9 million. To reach $920 million, the second half has to bring in about $527 million, or roughly $264 million a quarter. That’s 28% above the record.
The Backlog Covers This Year, but Not All of Next Year
The backlog suggests the company can get there. It reached $1.76 billion at June 30, up $1.55 billion from the end of 2025, and that includes $612.8 million that came with Lanteris.
On its second-quarter call, management said it expects 25% to 30% of that backlog to turn into revenue in 2026 and 35% to 40% in 2027. For the rest of this year, that works out to about $440 million to $530 million, so only the top of the range covers the roughly $527 million the second half needs. The company had also booked another $300 million of awards in the third quarter by Aug. 13, which helps close that gap.
2027 is a different story. Existing backlog covers about $620 million to $705 million of next year’s $1.17 billion consensus. That leaves roughly $460 million to $550 million that has to come from contracts Intuitive Machines hadn’t won by the end of June. So the third quarter’s bookings matter about as much as its revenue.
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Losses Grow Before They Shrink
The earnings estimates aren’t as encouraging. Consensus has the per-share loss widening from $0.40 in 2025 to $0.52 this year, then narrowing to $0.15 in 2027:
Only two analysts make those estimates, so I wouldn’t lean on them much. Fixed-price lunar work can also swing a single quarter. The second quarter’s $47.1 million operating loss included a $14.7 million charge after the company raised its estimate of what the IM-4 mission will cost to complete.
The Cash Has to Last
Free cash flow has been negative in seven of the last eight quarters, and the burn grew in 2026:
The company had $367.4 million of cash at June 30. At the first half’s pace, that’s about five quarters of runway. But that balance already included $235 million of net proceeds from selling stock through its at-the-market program in the second quarter alone. Without it, cash would have been about $132 million.
Management did tie part of the second quarter’s spending to buying inventory in advance, which it says led directly to new awards. Still, $83.9 million in a single quarter, by the company’s count, is a lot for a company this size.
What Intuitive Machines Needs to Show on Nov. 12
- Third-quarter revenue against the roughly $264 million quarterly pace the second half needs
- Whether the $900 million to $1 billion guidance holds
- New bookings and the backlog, compared with $1.76 billion at June 30
- Free cash flow, compared with the second quarter’s negative $83.9 million, and whether it sold more stock
This year’s revenue target looks reachable, and I’d be surprised if the guidance came down. The cash worries me more. The company is already selling stock to fund the burn, and if the burn doesn’t start shrinking in a quarter with $250 million or more of revenue, I’d expect more of that before the 2027 ramp shows up.
One report won’t settle 2027, though. That depends on awards booked since June 30 and on contracts still being bid on, and one big award could change the outlook faster than any single quarter’s results.
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