Key Takeaways
- AMD stock is up 170% in 2026, carried by two record data center quarters and Meta’s deal for up to 6 gigawatts of its AI chips.
- Intel ran nearly as far on demand for server chips, while Nvidia lagged and trades at less than half AMD’s forward multiple.
- October’s AI-financing scare cut AMD’s multiple while analysts kept expecting its normalized EPS to more than double in 2027.
- The Nov. 3 report is the first test of that doubling, and if it holds, AMD isn’t too late to buy.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock is up 170% in 2026, and the business earned most of it: two record data center quarters and a deal with Meta Platforms (META) for up to 6 gigawatts of its Instinct GPUs.
The chip rally helped too. Intel (INTC) is up 159% this year on the same hunger for server chips, while Nvidia (NVDA) has gained just 15% and trades at well under half AMD’s forward multiple. So what does AMD’s premium pay for?
From a February stumble to two record quarters
The year started badly. On Feb. 3, AMD guided first-quarter revenue below the quarter it had just reported, and the stock lost 17% the next day.
Three weeks later, Meta signed on for up to 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs with a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares.
Then the numbers showed up. First-quarter revenue came in at $10.25 billion, against the $9.89 billion analysts expected, with data center sales up 57%. In the second quarter, revenue rose 50% to $11.5 billion, data center sales more than doubled to $6.7 billion, and AMD guided to about $13 billion for the third quarter.
Intel’s run rests on part of the same story. AMD raised its forecast for the 2030 server CPU market to about $220 billion, from about $60 billion, in nine months, as AI agents eat up CPUs. New Street Research upgraded Intel to Buy on Oct. 26, arguing that server CPU supply will stay tight for years, so Intel’s third-quarter report, due before AMD’s, is a read on AMD’s server business.
TIKR tracks 55 analysts on AMD. How many say “Buy”?
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October took some of the froth off
AMD closed at a record on Oct. 6, the day CEO Lisa Su said it would raise supply substantially in 2027. Then fears over who pays for AI data centers hit chip stocks, and AMD now sits [12%] below that high.
Analysts didn’t cut their numbers through the drop. They still see normalized EPS more than doubling, from $7.61 this year to $15.85 in 2027:
AMD’s forward P/E peaked at 67x at the end of June and was down to 50x on Oct. 27, still well above its five-year average of 35x:
Nvidia traded at about 18x forward earnings on Oct. 22, though it faces the same financing worry: it’s putting $3 billion into Meta’s stock offering, three times the $1 billion AMD committed on Oct. 27. My read: the premium is all about 2027.
The main risk is that AMD helps fund some of its own demand: it guarantees a partner’s data center lease, has pledged up to $5 billion to Anthropic and handed OpenAI and Meta warrants for up to 160 million shares apiece.
Nov. 3 is the real test
AMD reports third-quarter results after the close on Nov. 3, having guided to about $13 billion of revenue at a 56% non-GAAP gross margin. The bigger numbers are the fourth-quarter guide, against the roughly $16.2 billion the 2026 consensus implies, and whether Su repeats what she said on the second-quarter call: data center revenue should more than double in 2027.
At Wednesday’s close, AMD traded at about 36x 2027 estimates, close to its five-year average once 2027 is the year ahead. The $640 consensus target sits about 11% above that close.
My take: it isn’t too late. Nvidia is the cheaper stock, but AMD’s premium buys earnings that analysts expect to double next year, and if Nov. 3 backs that up, I’d rather own AMD.
Of course, AMD leans on a handful of big buyers, and if one builds slower, that doubling slides into 2028.
So what is AMD stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what AMD could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
