Key Stats for Affirm Stock
- Current Price: $72.40
- Target Price (Mid): ~$149
- Street Target: ~$99
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
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What Happened?
Affirm (AFRM) signed an exclusive, multi-year deal on October 22 to become Sam’s Club’s pay-over-time provider, and the stock closed down 1.51% at $72.40 that day. The deal comes about 19 months after Klarna (KLAR) announced it would replace Affirm as Walmart’s installment partner.
Since September 23, Affirm has also announced deals with Amazon in the UK, Crate & Barrel, and Ant International’s Antom. On October 22, shares closed 15.6% below their highest close of the past year, with fiscal first-quarter results due after the close on November 5.
Sam’s Club Puts Affirm Back Inside Walmart’s Orbit
When Klarna won the Walmart slot in March 2025, Affirm said the integrated Walmart program made up about 5% of its gross merchandise volume (GMV), the value of purchases on its network, and about 2% of adjusted operating income in the six months through December 2024. Walmart (WMT) owns Sam’s Club, but terms were not disclosed, so the new deal’s size is unknown. Affirm said it will go live on SamsClub.com in the coming weeks and in clubs in 2027, so the September quarter gets nothing from it.
The deal fits two gaps CEO Max Levchin named at a Goldman Sachs conference on September 8. He said Affirm is “still fairly thin in terms of penetration into top 500 e-commerce retailers,” then added: “Off-line is still very nascent.” Sam’s Club offers both, online first and in clubs later. Levchin also said “it’s very important for us that no door is better or worse than any other one,” so shoppers get basically the same deal across checkout, wallets, and the Affirm Card, with very few exceptions.
On October 22, Levchin told Bloomberg that “every time they pick us, I take it as a vote of confidence.” Once Affirm is live, Walmart will work with both rivals across its businesses, which eMarketer noted lets it compare them.
TIKR tracks 34 analysts on Affirm. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Affirm, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Affirm’s Analyst Ratings
Rate-Hike Fears Moved the Stock More Than the Deal Did
On October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% economists expected. Traders’ odds of the Fed holding rates on October 28 fell to 53% from 78.4%, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached about 5.33% before closing at 5.19%, slightly lower on the day. Affirm fell more than 11.5% at one point, according to Invezz, a steeper drop than other buy now, pay later lenders. Affirm funds loans through warehouse facilities, securitizations, and loan sales, so a higher path for rates raises its cost of capital.
Goldman Sachs cut its target to $103 from $115 on October 13 and kept a Buy rating, after TD Cowen moved to $110 from $124 on October 6. CFO Rob O’Hare sold 65,591 shares at about $80 on October 9 after exercising options, under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, according to his Form 4. As of October 22, the Street mean sat near $99, about 36% above the close, with 21 Buy, 6 Outperform, and 7 Hold ratings.
Management guided September-quarter revenue to $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, and the 29-analyst consensus sits at about $1.21 billion. Consensus EBIT of about $154 million lands in the upper half of the $137 million to $165 million guide. Affirm beat revenue estimates in each of its last five reports, though adjusted EPS fell short in three. The Fed decides on October 28, before Affirm reports.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $72.40
- Target Price (Mid): ~$149
- Potential Total Return: ~105%
- Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
TIKR’s mid case, the balanced scenario, values Affirm at around $149 by June 30, 2031. That is about a 105% total return from $72.40, or about 17% a year over 4.7 years. Management guides fiscal 2027 GMV above $64 billion, and consensus has the EBIT margin widening from 9.8% in fiscal 2026 to around 15% in fiscal 2027 and around 19% in fiscal 2028. Funding is the primary risk, because a higher path for rates raises what Affirm pays for capital. Upside comes if revenue keeps beating estimates. The March 27 low, 48.79% below the prior peak, shows how far sentiment can swing the other way.
Conclusion
November 5 shows whether growth is outrunning funding costs. Revenue at or above the $1.22 billion top of guidance, with EBIT inside its range, would back the mid case. A print near the $1.19 billion floor would leave rate fears in charge, and Sam’s Club cannot add volume until later quarters.
So what is Affirm stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
