Key Takeaways
- X-energy stock fell 23% in the past month as investors sold small-reactor stocks, Oklo and NuScale Power among them.
- The company’s own news was good: a joint development deal with American Electric Power and Amazon for a 960 MW plant in Indiana, and a finished NRC safety review of its Xe-100 reactor.
- Wedbush initiated coverage at Buy with a $17 target, below the $31 consensus. That target is just under 9x forward sales, below the stock’s average since its IPO.
- Third-quarter results on Nov. 12 need to show X-energy has the cash to keep going until revenue from these projects arrives.
X-energy (XE) stock is down 23% in the past month, and the other small-reactor stocks did even worse. Oklo (OKLO) lost 35% and NuScale Power (SMR) lost 31%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 9%.
That’s despite a month of real progress at X-energy, including a plant deal with American Electric Power (AEP) and Amazon (AMZN). And on Nov. 2, Wedbush initiated coverage at Buy with a $17 target, 54% above the stock’s current price.
Good news didn’t save it
On Oct. 19, X-energy and AEP signed a joint development agreement for a proposed 12-unit, 960 MW Xe-100 plant near the former Breed coal plant in Sullivan County, Indiana. Amazon will help fund development and plans to buy the power. AEP says the plan aims to help Indiana without raising costs for its customers.
It’s still feasibility work for now. But on Oct. 30, the NRC finished its final safety review of the Xe-100. That completes both of the main reviews the NRC needs before it can approve a construction permit.
Analysts expect projects like these to turn into real revenue:
That’s $110 million in 2025 growing to $1.4 billion by 2029. The big step comes in 2027, to $860 million from $210 million this year, so a lot rides on that one year.
Even the group’s Oct. 6 rally faded. That day the reactor stocks jumped on Constellation and Google’s 20-year, 890 MW nuclear power deal.
TIKR tracks 10 analysts on X-energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on X-energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See X-energy’s Analyst Ratings
Investors are selling the whole group
On Oct. 14, Morgan Stanley cut its target to $34 from $41 and kept its Overweight rating, as part of a wider revision of its targets. That afternoon, X-energy, Oklo and NuScale fell together. That night, a caller asked CNBC’s Jim Cramer about X-energy on Mad Money:
“No, it’s losing too much money. And since the rates started rising and the Fed started rising, I do not recommend companies that lose money because I will end up losing money for you.”
X-energy had a month of good news and still fell. Oklo and NuScale fell even more. I read that as investors selling the whole group.
The cuts kept coming. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $8 from $9 on Oct. 19 and kept its Underweight rating. UBS cut its target to $18 from $34 on Oct. 21 and kept its Buy. Needham initiated coverage at Hold on Oct. 26, with no target.
Wedbush’s $17 is a low bar
Wedbush analyst Seth Basham’s $17 is below the targets from UBS ($18), Morgan Stanley ($34) and Guggenheim ($57), and all three are bullish too. The stock trades at 5.4x forward sales as of Nov. 2, its lowest since it listed:
Wedbush’s $17 works out to just under 9x forward sales. That’s still below the stock’s 13x average since the IPO. The average covers only six months and includes a 37x peak in May, and $17 is nowhere near that peak.
The consensus target has come down from $48 when coverage began in May to $31. It’s still well above Wedbush’s target:
Nov. 12 has to show the cash
X-energy reports third-quarter results on Nov. 12. Watch its cash and how long it lasts, plus any timing on the Indiana feasibility work and a construction permit. A money-losing company with years of building ahead could well sell more stock.
The way I see it, investors have sold X-energy harder than its own news justifies. Wedbush’s $17 looks reachable at a multiple well short of the stock’s post-IPO highs. Of course, if the Nov. 12 report shows the cash running thin, or the 2027 revenue estimate starts to slip, that changes.
So what is X-energy stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
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