Key Stats for Rivian Stock
- 1- Year Price Change for Rivian stock: 45%
- Current Share Price: $15.40
- 52-Week High: $17.15
- $RIVN Stock Price Target: $14.13
What Happened?
Valued at a market capitalization of $19 billion, Rivian (RIVN) stock has increased by more than 45% over the last 12 months, as investors remain optimistic about the company’s expansion plans.
Rivian officially broke ground on its $5 billion manufacturing plant in Georgia this week. The facility, located east of Atlanta, will be capable of producing 200,000 vehicles annually starting in 2028, with plans to eventually double that capacity.
CEO RJ Scaringe made it clear the company isn’t backing down despite recent headwinds. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit disappeared at the end of September, and tariffs are adding roughly $2,000 in costs per vehicle. Additionally, the loss of regulatory credit sales will result in a $140 million revenue reduction for Rivian this year.
But Scaringe’s pitch is straightforward: the R2 SUV launching next year isn’t just an electric vehicle, it’s “an incredible five-passenger off-road machine that happens to be electric.” Translation: Rivian believes the product can stand on its own without subsidies.
The Georgia plant is critical to Rivian’s path to profitability. Currently, the company manufactures high-end R1T trucks and R1S SUVs at its Illinois facility, with prices starting at $71,000.
Next year, that same Illinois plant will start producing the more affordable R2 at $45,000. Combined, Illinois can handle 215,000 vehicles per year. However, if the R2 hits and the even smaller R3 gains traction, Rivian will need more capacity. That’s where Georgia comes in.
The numbers tell the growth story. Rivian expects to deliver 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles this year, down from 52,000 last year.
However, with the R2 launching in early 2026 and the R3 following in 2028 at an expected price point of under $40,000, the company is banking on a significant volume increase.
For context, Tesla sells 90% of its vehicles from just two affordable models, the Model 3 and Model Y. Rivian is preparing to launch three affordable models over the next few years.
There’s also momentum on the commercial van side. After exclusively supplying Amazon with delivery vans through 2023, Rivian opened sales to other fleet buyers. Landing another large commercial customer could significantly boost near-term scale and revenue.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Rivian stock (It’s free!) >>>
What the Market Is Telling Us About RIVN Stock
RIVN stock trades at roughly four times 2025 sales, a steep discount compared to Lucid at seven times sales and Tesla at 15 times.
The market is pricing in Rivian’s slow growth, as revenue has grown just 3% so far in 2025, and analysts expect only 6% growth this fiscal year. Compare that to Lucid’s projected 61% growth, and the valuation gap makes sense.
But here’s the interesting part: Tesla’s sales are down 5% this year, yet its stock trades at a massive premium.
The difference? Tesla has exposure to the autonomous robotaxi market, which some analysts believe could be worth $10 trillion globally.
Lucid recently partnered with Uber for robotaxi supply, but Rivian hasn’t announced major robotaxi plans yet, which may be weighing on the stock.
Still, Rivian stock could be undervalued if the company executes on the R2 and R3 launches. Nearly 70% of U.S. car buyers want vehicles under $50,000, and Rivian is about to offer three models in that range.
If those vehicles gain even a fraction of the traction Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y achieved, revenue growth could accelerate dramatically in 2026 and 2027.
The Georgia groundbreaking signals Rivian is committed despite industry challenges. The company secured $5.8 billion from Volkswagen for its software and electrical architecture technology, as well as a $6.6 billion federal loan for the Georgia plant.
Management is confident enough to move forward with construction, which doesn’t happen unless there’s clear visibility to completion.
For investors, the question is whether Rivian can scale fast enough to reach profitability before cash runs out.
The company lost $1.66 billion in the first half of 2025, and shares are down over 80% since the 2021 IPO.
However, excluding Tesla, Rivian remains the most successful EV startup, holding a 3% U.S. market share as of the first half of 2025.
The next 12 to 18 months will be critical. If the R2 launches smoothly and demand is strong, Rivian stock could look cheap in hindsight.
If execution stumbles or the affordable EV market stays sluggish, the discount to peers could widen further.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
