Key Stats for FCX Stock
- 2-day Price Change for $FCX stock: -20%
- Current Share Price: $35.34
- 52-Week High: $52
- $FCX Stock Price Target: $48
What Happened?
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock is down over 20% in the last two days, following devastating news from its crown jewel, the Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
The company declared force majeure after a catastrophic mud rush incident on September 8th that killed two workers, left five others missing, and forced a complete suspension of operations at what is the world’s second-largest copper mine.
The incident involved approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material that suddenly rushed into the mine, traveling rapidly through multiple levels, including areas where the missing workers were conducting development activities.
Search and rescue operations continue around the clock, but mining operations in the entire Grasberg minerals district have remained suspended since September 8th.
Freeport warned that Q3 consolidated copper sales are expected to be approximately 4% lower than the July estimates, while gold sales are projected to decline by roughly 6%.
The mining company indicated that Q4 copper and gold sales would be “insignificant,” compared to previous estimates of 445 million pounds of copper and 345,000 ounces of gold.
The company expects that unaffected mines could restart by mid-Q4 2025, with a phased restart of the main Grasberg Block Cave beginning in H1 2026. However, a full return to pre-incident operating rates may not occur until 2027.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for FCX stock (It’s free!) >>>
What the Market Is Telling Us About FCX Stock
The brutal sell-off in FCX stock reflects investors grappling with the magnitude of lost production from Freeport’s most critical asset.
The Grasberg Block Cave represents 50% of the Indonesian subsidiary’s proven and probable reserves and approximately 70% of previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029.
Multiple analysts moved swiftly to downgrade FCX stock. Scotiabank cut its rating from “Sector Outperform” to “Sector Perform”, slashing the price target to $45 from $55.
The firm reduced its 2025-2026 EBITDA estimates by an average of 27% annually, citing “significant operational impacts” and anticipating a “significant overhang” on shares until clarity emerges.
BofA Securities downgraded from “Buy” to “Neutral”, while Jefferies maintained its “Buy” rating but lowered its price target to $46. BMO Capital dropped its target to $48 from $54, with analysts across the board reducing 2026 EBITDA forecasts by roughly 26%.
The market reaction highlights the significant dependence of Freeport on Grasberg, which generated net unit cash costs of negative $0.99 per pound in Q2, essentially paying the company to produce copper after accounting for gold and other byproduct credits.
This incident removes Freeport’s lowest-cost, highest-margin production for an extended period during a time when copper prices are hitting multi-year highs.
Investors are also concerned about the timing, as Freeport had been benefiting from significant U.S. copper premiums due to tariff policies, which could have provided substantial additional cash flows from domestic sales.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
